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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
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GB MM Burns vs MalottFight Card · Welterweight KP CJ Phillips vs JourdainFight Card · Bantamweight MN JH Nallo vs HerbertFight Card · Lightweight JJ KS Jasudavicius vs SilvaFight Card · Women'S Flyweight TM GY Moisés vs YoungFight Card · Lightweight DB MB Buzukja vs BarbosaPreliminary Card · Featherweight JL RV Leblanc vs ValentinPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC DZ Croden vs ZheleznyakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JA JH Aldrich vs HorthPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight JC MV Castañeda vs VologdinPreliminary Card · Catchweight JS JY Siraj vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TB GS Boser vs SarıçamPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Nallo over Herbert · Lightweight Our fair value$1.47 BetUS pays above fair $1.65
Where to back Nallo best price · region · EV vs fair $1.47
US BetUS $1.65 +12%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.61 +9%
EU Pinnacle $1.61 +9%
AU Unibet $1.61 +9%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.64
Consensus153 picks · conf 99/99
Nallo 128
25 Herbert
FCWMLB pick Nallo
How it endsmethod calls · Nallo · crowd line
KO/TKO 22 $2.14
Decision 10 $4.71
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nallo 14-3 VS 13-6-1 Herbert
6'0" height 6'1"
155 lb weight 156 lb
75" reach 77"
36 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
strikes landed / min 3.2
striking accuracy 42%
strikes absorbed / min 3.4
striking defence 52%
takedowns / 15 min 0.5
takedown accuracy 23%
takedown defence 59%
submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 61%
Consensus128 of 153 analysts
Sharpest angleNallo by KO/TKO — 22 of 32 method calls
Recommendation Back Nallo @ $1.65 · fair $1.47 +12% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TF The Fight Forecast picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I'm going to go Jai Herbert here.”
J- J-Dog picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I'm gonna go with Jai Herbert.”
MM Mic'd up & Misinformed picks Mandel Nallo VALUE “Mandel Nallo just came off of the Contender Series with a knockout in the first round. So, I feel like this guy's going to come out pretty dangerous here. He's a guy that wins by finish.” $1.58
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_33's going to find Jai's chin at some point... I think he's going to be the winner even if it goes to the scorecards”
SD SDAWGSMMATALK picks Mandel Nallo VALUE “Next one is Mandel Nallo and Jai Herbert ... I was leaning towards Jai Herbert, but ... Yeah, even Juice Man said Jasmine Jasudavicius ... Next one. Kyler Phillips and Charles We're going with Charles Jourdain. We >> And we're going with Gilbert Burns >> Juice man said Gilbert Burns is a lock. >> Gilbert Burns. >> Gilbert Burns. All right, boys. help us out >> Vagden, JJ Aldrich, Daria, Tanner Boser, Dieago Moyes, Gilbert Burns. y'all boys think right there? Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns. Or not Gilbert Burns. week, Moyesus, Tanner Boser, or Mark. You know a bunch you know John Yannis's >> I went with Gilbert Burns. NOT_IN_ROSTER_48. Did you go with Gilbert Burns or NOT_IN_ROSTER_30? main event, dog, we went with Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns. Charles Jourdain. Uh, seriously, Moose, I >> Mark, I like Gilbert Burns, but I think Gilbert Burns verse NOT_IN_ROSTER_29. Brazil in”
SD SDAWGSMMATALK picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I was leaning towards Jai Herbert”
AH Alonzo Hernandez picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I think Jai Herbert gets a TKO win in the second round.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Jai Herbert “I'm going to go with uh Jai Herbert by decision here. I think she can get this done.”
MC McManusMMA picks Mandel Nallo VALUE “Rat Garbage Mandel Nallo Nalo is going to absolutely sleep Ji Jai Herbert out cold”
FI Figure4_MMA picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I'm picking Jai Herbert by round two TKO”
FI Figure4_MMA picks Mandel Nallo VALUE “I'm picking Mandel Nallo by round two TKO”
SC Smash Cast picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I know Jai Herbert fights”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nallo14-3
L Herbert KO/TKO · R1 Apr '26
Herbert13-6-1
W Nallo KO/TKO · R1 Apr '26
L Padilla Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Bedoya Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Ziam Decision · R3 Jul '23
W Nelson Decision · R3 Jul '22