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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
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GB MM Burns vs MalottFight Card · Welterweight KP CJ Phillips vs JourdainFight Card · Bantamweight MN JH Nallo vs HerbertFight Card · Lightweight JJ KS Jasudavicius vs SilvaFight Card · Women'S Flyweight TM GY Moisés vs YoungFight Card · Lightweight DB MB Buzukja vs BarbosaPreliminary Card · Featherweight JL RV Leblanc vs ValentinPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC DZ Croden vs ZheleznyakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JA JH Aldrich vs HorthPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight JC MV Castañeda vs VologdinPreliminary Card · Catchweight JS JY Siraj vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TB GS Boser vs SarıçamPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Moisés over Young · Lightweight Our fair value$2.19 DraftKings pays above fair $2.40
Where to back Moisés best price · region · EV vs fair $2.19
US DraftKings $2.40 +10%
UK Grosvenor $2.30 +5%
EU Pinnacle $2.39 +9%
AU SportsBet $2.35 +7%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.38
Consensus171 picks · conf 99/99
Moisés 88
83 Young
MTKMMU pick Moisés
How it endsmethod calls · Moisés · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $69.99
Submission 9 $7.78
Decision 22 $3.18
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Moisés 19-9 VS 10-3 Young
5'9" height 5'9"
155 lb weight 155 lb
70" reach 70"
31 age 25
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.4 strikes landed / min 3.4
40% striking accuracy 35%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
54% striking defence 46%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
35% takedown accuracy 71%
55% takedown defence 79%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 42%
Consensus88 of 171 analysts
Sharpest angleMoisés by Decision — 22 of 32 method calls
Recommendation Back Moisés @ $2.40 · fair $2.19 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IM Industry Plant MMA picks Thiago Moisés “I think Thiago Moisés is going to use his good at jiu-jitsu. And Thiago Moisés is the night, Thiago Moisés.”
J- J-Dog picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm going to go with Thiago Moisés to win this one.”
MM Mic'd up & Misinformed picks Gauge Young VALUE “look for Gauge Young here, especially at the 145.” $1.69
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I think Thiago Moisés is somebody who can break... he does have great jiu-jitsu and he has decent striking”
SD SDAWGSMMATALK picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “We're going with Thiago Moisés”
SD SDAWGSMMATALK picks Gauge Young VALUE “We're going with Gauge Young”
AH Alonzo Hernandez picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm going Thiago Moisés here.”
MM MMA Mobsters picks Gauge Young VALUE “Give me give me give me Gauge Young.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Thiago Moisés “I'm going to go with Thiago Moisés by decision.”
MC McManusMMA picks Gauge Young VALUE “I'm going to go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_25 Gauge Young to win this one”
FI Figure4_MMA picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm picking Thiago Moisés by decision”
VM Voice of MMA picks Gauge Young VALUE “Give me favorite pick of the card is Gauge Young over Thiago Moisés”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Moisés19-9
L Young Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 May '25
W Ogden Decision · R3 Jan '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Ramirez KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
Young10-3
W Moisés Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Hayisaer Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Elder Decision · R3 Apr '25