Choose a fight to analyse
CM
MH
McGregor vs HollowayMain Card · Welterweight
BD
PP
Denis vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
CS
MB
Sandhagen vs BautistaMain Card · Bantamweight
BR
LK
Royval vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight
KG
TM
Green vs McKinneyMain Card · Lightweight
RW
NK
Whittaker vs KrylovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
CG
AY
Garbrandt vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
LR
KI
Riley vs IIIPreliminary Card · Featherweight
TC
WC
Cortez vs CongEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DP
CA
Pinas vs AlmeidaEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
RG
ZR
Gandra vs ReeseEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
GS
EE
Steveson vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MH
McGregor vs HollowayMain Card · Welterweight
BD
PP
Denis vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
CS
MB
Sandhagen vs BautistaMain Card · Bantamweight
BR
LK
Royval vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight
KG
TM
Green vs McKinneyMain Card · Lightweight
RW
NK
Whittaker vs KrylovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
CG
AY
Garbrandt vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
LR
KI
Riley vs IIIPreliminary Card · Featherweight
TC
WC
Cortez vs CongEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DP
CA
Pinas vs AlmeidaEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
RG
ZR
Gandra vs ReeseEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
GS
EE
Steveson vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Riley
over Kamaka III · Featherweight
Our fair value$1.24
pays above fair
$1.33
Best prices · Riley
BetOnline.ag · US
$1.31
Paddy Power · UK
$1.33
Coolbet · EU
$1.32
PlayUp · AU
$1.33
Where to back Riley
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.24
US
BetOnline.ag
$1.31
+5%
BetOnline.ag
$1.31
+5%
UK
Paddy Power
$1.33
+7%
Paddy Power
$1.33
+7%
EU
Coolbet
$1.32
+6%
Coolbet
$1.32
+6%
AU
PlayUp
$1.33
+7%
PlayUp
$1.33
+7%
How it endsmethod calls · Riley · crowd line
KO/TKO
1
$6.21
Decision
4
$1.55
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Riley 12-0
VS
17-7-1 Kamaka III
5'9"
height
5'7"
145 lb
weight
155 lb
69"
reach
69"
27
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
0.0
strikes landed / min
5.0
0%
striking accuracy
57%
0.0
strikes absorbed / min
5.3
0%
striking defence
55%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
0%
takedown accuracy
58%
0%
takedown defence
52%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market80% vs 75%
Consensus17 of 18 analysts
Line move · 7d$1.32 → $1.33
Sharpest angleRiley by Decision — 4 of 5 method calls
Recommendation
Back Riley @ $1.33 · fair $1.24
+7% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
Marlon Rodriguez MMA picks Luke Riley
“I'm going to take Luke Riley because I don't know.”
Marlon Rodriguez MMA picks Luke Riley
“I'm going to take Luke Riley because I don't know.”
DI
DIORPIUM picks Kai Kamaka III
“I'm going to go Kai Kamaka III getting like the decision here. Like this upset decision.”
DIORPIUM picks Kai Kamaka III
“I'm going to go Kai Kamaka III getting like the decision here. Like this upset decision.”
CE
CertifiedMMAsian picks Luke Riley
“Give me Luke Riley by knockout over Kai Kamaka III.”
CertifiedMMAsian picks Luke Riley
“Give me Luke Riley by knockout over Kai Kamaka III.”
TO
TonyHasDiedMMA picks Luke Riley
“I think Luke Riley will be fine in this one. He will win by decision just out striking Kai Kamaka III.”
TonyHasDiedMMA picks Luke Riley
“I think Luke Riley will be fine in this one. He will win by decision just out striking Kai Kamaka III.”
WM
Work Break MMA picks Luke Riley
“Give me Luke Riley to win this fight by first round knockout, catching Kai Kamaka III early and finishing him.”
Work Break MMA picks Luke Riley
“Give me Luke Riley to win this fight by first round knockout, catching Kai Kamaka III early and finishing him.”
FC
Fight For Casuals picks Luke Riley
“I think I agree with the odds on Luke Luke Riley”
Fight For Casuals picks Luke Riley
“I think I agree with the odds on Luke Luke Riley”
MM
MMA Monkey MMA picks Luke Riley
“I'm taking Luke Riley as my uh prediction.”
MMA Monkey MMA picks Luke Riley
“I'm taking Luke Riley as my uh prediction.”
WO
wokski picks Luke Riley
“I've got Luke Riley winning this fight by decision or TKO”
wokski picks Luke Riley
“I've got Luke Riley winning this fight by decision or TKO”
HB
Half The Battle picks Luke Riley
“I'm going to pick Luke Luke Riley to come out here and defeat Kai Kai Kamaka III and keep climbing the ladder.”
Half The Battle picks Luke Riley
“I'm going to pick Luke Luke Riley to come out here and defeat Kai Kai Kamaka III and keep climbing the ladder.”
RP
Rparqs picks Luke Riley
“I am going to go with Luke Riley here. I'm going to go by decision”
Rparqs picks Luke Riley
“I am going to go with Luke Riley here. I'm going to go by decision”
FM
Fresh Start MMA picks Luke Riley
“I am picking Luke Riley to be the one to get the job done”
Fresh Start MMA picks Luke Riley
“I am picking Luke Riley to be the one to get the job done”
FP
Fight Productions picks Luke Riley
“I'll still take Luke Riley to win this one. I think he'll get it done uh by decision.”
Fight Productions picks Luke Riley
“I'll still take Luke Riley to win this one. I think he'll get it done uh by decision.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Riley12-0
W
Jr.
Mar '26
W
Grad
Nov '25
Kamaka III17-7-1
W
Hope
Apr '26
L
Brown
May '21
L
Pearce
Nov '20
W
Kelley
Aug '20