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BEST PRICE We back Filho over Nascimento · Catchweight Our fair value$1.93 Coolbet pays above fair $2.10
Where to back Filho best price · region · EV vs fair $1.93
US BetRivers $2.04 +6%
UK Virgin Bet $2.04 +6%
EU Coolbet $2.10 +9%
AU TAB $2.05 +6%
Consensus57 picks · conf 72/99
Filho 34
23 Nascimento
TTABHJ pick Filho
How it endsmethod calls · Filho · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $10.96
Submission 3 $10.96
Decision 10 $3.29
None 1 $32.88
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Filho 17-5 VS 22-7 Nascimento
5'7" height 5'8"
135 lb weight 126 lb
69" reach 70"
33 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 5.1
41% striking accuracy 37%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
54% striking defence 57%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
74% takedown accuracy 42%
71% takedown defence 75%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market52% vs 48%
Consensus34 of 57 analysts
Sharpest angleFilho by Decision — 10 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Filho @ $2.10 · fair $1.93 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Jafel Filho “Jafel Filho e Allan Nascimento. Promessas brasileiras do peso mosca se enfrentam em duelo que pode aproximar vencedor do top 15.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Allan Nascimento “Jafel Filho e Allan Nascimento. Promessas brasileiras do peso mosca se enfrentam em duelo que pode aproximar vencedor do top 15.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Jafel Filho VALUE “I am going Jafil Filio plus 130 to get the job done.” $2.30
CM Coty MMA picks Jafel Filho VALUE “I'm gonna stick with my underdog pick of of Jafuio, the layoff... slightly lean Felio.”
TO The Handsum One picks Jafel Filho “Uh I'm gonna take Jafel Filho... I got Jafil winning most likely a decision.”
GP Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Jafel Filho VALUE “I honestly love Rafael wherever this fight goes. I think he gets it done here as my favorite underdog player of the week.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Jafel Filho VALUE “Our pick, Jafelle Filho, the underdog”
TP Tony's Picks picks Jafel Filho VALUE “I like the dog in this one.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Jafel Filho “I'm going to rely on him to get the win.”
BM Bogman Financial Sports Risk Management picks Jafel Filho “that's my pick.”
LM Lyfties MMA picks Jafel Filho “I'm going to go with Jafel Filho just because he does have a little bit more consistency when you compare him to Allan Nascimento, who hasn't fought in two years.”
TC The "CASUAL" Cam picks Jafel Filho VALUE “I think Jafel Filho is high tang on the feet.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Filho17-5
L Durden Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Carpenter Submission · R1 Oct '25
L Nascimento Decision · R3 May '25
W Osbourne Submission · R1 Mar '24
W Bárez Submission · R1 Jul '23
Nascimento22-7
L Raposo Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Durden Submission · R2 Nov '25
W Filho Decision · R3 May '25
W Hernández Submission · R1 Jan '23
W Hadley Decision · R3 May '22