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Filho vs NascimentoPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Holobaugh vs LeavittPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
We back
Filho
over Nascimento · Catchweight
Our fair value$1.93
pays above fair
$2.10
Best prices · Filho
BetRivers · US
$2.04
Virgin Bet · UK
$2.04
Coolbet · EU
$2.10
Where to back Filho
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.93
US
BetRivers
$2.04
+6%
BetRivers
$2.04
+6%
UK
Virgin Bet
$2.04
+6%
Virgin Bet
$2.04
+6%
EU
Coolbet
$2.10
+9%
Coolbet
$2.10
+9%
AU
TAB
$2.05
+6%
How it endsmethod calls · Filho · crowd line
KO/TKO
3
$10.96
Submission
3
$10.96
Decision
10
$3.29
None
1
$32.88
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Filho 17-5
VS
22-7 Nascimento
5'7"
height
5'8"
135 lb
weight
126 lb
69"
reach
70"
33
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.5
strikes landed / min
5.1
41%
striking accuracy
37%
3.3
strikes absorbed / min
4.2
54%
striking defence
57%
2.3
takedowns / 15 min
2.0
74%
takedown accuracy
42%
71%
takedown defence
75%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market52% vs 48%
Consensus34 of 57 analysts
Sharpest angleFilho by Decision — 10 of 17 method calls
Recommendation
Back Filho @ $2.10 · fair $1.93
+9% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
SL
SUPER LUTAS picks Jafel Filho
“Jafel Filho e Allan Nascimento. Promessas brasileiras do peso mosca se enfrentam em duelo que pode aproximar vencedor do top 15.”
SL
SUPER LUTAS picks Allan Nascimento
“Jafel Filho e Allan Nascimento. Promessas brasileiras do peso mosca se enfrentam em duelo que pode aproximar vencedor do top 15.”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“I am going Jafil Filio plus 130 to get the job done.”
$2.30
CM
Coty MMA picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“I'm gonna stick with my underdog pick of of Jafuio, the layoff... slightly lean Felio.”
TO
The Handsum One picks Jafel Filho
“Uh I'm gonna take Jafel Filho... I got Jafil winning most likely a decision.”
GP
Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“I honestly love Rafael wherever this fight goes. I think he gets it done here as my favorite underdog player of the week.”
HN
Hidden Source News picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“Our pick, Jafelle Filho, the underdog”
TP
Tony's Picks picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“I like the dog in this one.”
MR
MMA ROACH picks Jafel Filho
“I'm going to rely on him to get the win.”
BM
Bogman Financial Sports Risk Management picks Jafel Filho
“that's my pick.”
LM
Lyfties MMA picks Jafel Filho
“I'm going to go with Jafel Filho just because he does have a little bit more consistency when you compare him to Allan Nascimento, who hasn't fought in two years.”
TC
The "CASUAL" Cam picks Jafel Filho VALUE
“I think Jafel Filho is high tang on the feet.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Filho17-5
L
Durden
Apr '26
W
Carpenter
Oct '25
L
Nascimento
May '25
W
Osbourne
Mar '24
W
Bárez
Jul '23
Nascimento22-7
L
Raposo
Jun '26
W
Durden
Nov '25
W
Filho
May '25
W
Hernández
Jan '23
W
Hadley
May '22