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BEST PRICE We back Reese over Todorović · Middleweight Our fair value$1.36 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.50
Where to back Reese best price · region · EV vs fair $1.36
US FanDuel $1.48 +9%
UK Paddy Power $1.50 +10%
EU Pinnacle $1.45 +6%
AU Neds $1.48 +9%
Consensus46 picks · conf 66/99
Reese 40
6 Todorović
AB9BJG pick Reese
How it endsmethod calls · Reese · crowd line
KO/TKO 36 $1.63
Submission 2 $29.29
Decision 4 $14.64
None 1 $58.58
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Reese 10-3 VS 13-6 Todorović
6'4" height 6'1"
185 lb weight 186 lb
77" reach 74"
32 age 32
Switch stance Orthodox
4.6 strikes landed / min 4.1
36% striking accuracy 65%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.1
49% striking defence 47%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 2.6
69% takedown accuracy 51%
64% takedown defence 82%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market73% vs 67%
Consensus40 of 46 analysts
Sharpest angleReese by KO/TKO — 36 of 43 method calls
Recommendation Back Reese @ $1.50 · fair $1.36 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TP The Wally Report Podcast picks Duško Todorović VALUE “Richie Boy has the cojones to take Duško Todorović against us.”
TP The Wally Report Podcast picks Zachary Reese VALUE “I got to stay smart and take Zachary Reese. Nico and I are both taking Zachary Reese.” $1.34
BE BetSam picks Zachary Reese VALUE “Our first parlay piece that is Betsam approved is gonna be Zachary Reese. ... I think Zachary Reese gets it done inside a round and a half. That's why I think he's safe to paralle.”
TT Teep talk picks Zachary Reese “I'm gonna go with Zachary Reese.” $1.41
MR MMA ROACH picks Zachary Reese “I'm going to rely on Zachary Reesese to [ __ ] him up.”
BM Bogman Financial Sports Risk Management picks Zachary Reese “I think I'm going to take Zachary Reese here. Um maybe Zach Ree by KO”
CM Canal OSS - UFC, MMA, Lutas e mais... picks Zachary Reese “Para mim, Zaker Reiz leva esse combate”
WP We Want Picks picks Zachary Reese VALUE “Zachary Reeseary Zachary Reeseary Reese should win this fight. We've seen the insane power in his hands. He's got very good jiu-jitsu.”
PN Picks Nation picks Zachary Reese VALUE “This is saying he hits more than that in 65% of the simulation. So, we'll go ahead and we're going to trust that”
UT UFC Predictions Tracker picks Zachary Reese VALUE “most are expecting he will win this fight via KO TKO” $1.41
TA TalkAboutMMA picks Zachary Reese “And I think that Zachary Zachary Reesesese probably knocks him out pretty fast. Be pretty brutal.”
KP Knockout Picks picks Zachary Reese “I'm going to pick him to win this fight.” $1.40
Recent form last five, most recent first
Reese10-3
L Pereira Decision · R3 Feb '26
W McVey Submission · R2 Nov '25
W Todorović Decision · R3 May '25
L Bekoev KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Medina Decision · R3 Aug '24
Todorović13-6
W Medina Submission · R1 Sep '25
L Reese Decision · R3 May '25
L Abdul-Malik KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Duncan KO/TKO · R1 Mar '23
W Wright KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22