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UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy
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LM JE Murphy vs EmmettMain Card · Featherweight PS JB Sabatini vs BritoMain Card · Featherweight LC CR Chang-ho vs RomiousMain Card · Catchweight BT GM Tavares vs MeerschaertMain Card · Middleweight OO LG Osbourne vs GuruleMain Card · Flyweight TF RV Finney vs ValentinMain Card · Middleweight DB DB Barbosa vs BelbiţăPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight RM DF McKee vs FrunzaPreliminary Card · Welterweight LL IN Lookboonmee vs NunesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight VH PF Henry vs FalcãoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MB US Buday vs SatybaldievPreliminary Card · Heavyweight TA VD Alencar vs DemopoulosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Buday over Satybaldiev · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.48 PlayUp pays above fair $1.65
Where to back Buday best price · region · EV vs fair $1.48
US BetRivers $1.64 +11%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.64 +11%
EU Coolbet $1.65 +11%
AU PlayUp $1.65 +11%
Consensus24 picks · conf 48/99
Buday 20
4 Satybaldiev
TUMPUp pick Buday
How it endsmethod calls · Buday · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $2.96
Decision 3 $2.96
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Buday 14-2 VS 9-1 Satybaldiev
6'4" height 6'4"
266 lb weight 204 lb
77" reach 79"
34 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.8 strikes landed / min 2.3
53% striking accuracy 46%
5.5 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
52% striking defence 67%
0.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
25% takedown accuracy 40%
100% takedown defence 70%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 61%
Consensus20 of 24 analysts
Sharpest angleBuday by KO/TKO — 3 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Buday @ $1.65 · fair $1.48 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Martin Buday VALUE
TD The Rambling Dad picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE “I think at this point in his career, the experience that he's gotten in his 19 fights will surpass Lon Lerone Murphy.”
GM GLO MMA picks Martin Buday VALUE “Martin Buday is straight.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Uran Satybaldiev “I'm gonna pick Uran Satybaldiev... So, we're all on Uran Satybaldiev.”
GI GipperPicks picks Martin Buday “Martin Buday is a heavyweight and Uran Satybaldiev is actually a light heavyweight.” $1.62
UG UFC Genie picks Martin Buday “I think Martin Buday is probably going to win that fight.”
NM Nocaut mma picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE “creo que va a ganar Uran Satybaldiev”
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE “I'll pass value on Uran Satybaldiev though per my metrics if you're interested.” $2.35
PP Parlay Princes picks Martin Buday “I'm not even going to cover the Martin Buday fight cuz guys, I have no idea who his opponent is. Uran Satybaldiev.”
GM Green Bets MMA picks Martin Buday “I'm gonna go with Martin Bedet. He's had a full training camp... Martin Buday should get this done.”
PS Plays & Fades Sports picks Uran Satybaldiev “Betting wise I don't mind a shot the under here... but very interesting match up there then Victor Henry versus Pedro Falcão”
PA parlay4parlay picks Martin Buday “I'm taking Martin Martin Budayay”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Buday14-2
W Buchecha Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Satybaldiev Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Arlovski Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Gaziev KO/TKO · R2 Dec '23
W Parisian Submission · R1 Aug '23
Satybaldiev9-1
W Nurgozhay Submission · R1 Aug '25
L Buday Decision · R3 Apr '25