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Diaz vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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Santos vs MarshallPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Diaz vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Marshall
over Santos · Featherweight
Our fair value$3.51
pays above fair
$3.75
Best prices · Marshall
FanDuel · US
$3.05
Unibet (UK) · UK
$2.95
NordicBet · EU
$3.15
PlayUp · AU
$3.75
Where to back Marshall
best price · region · EV vs fair $3.51
US
FanDuel
$3.05
-13%
FanDuel
$3.05
-13%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$2.95
-16%
Unibet (UK)
$2.95
-16%
EU
NordicBet
$3.15
-10%
NordicBet
$3.15
-10%
AU
PlayUp
$3.75
+7%
PlayUp
$3.75
+7%
How it endsmethod calls · Marshall · crowd line
Submission
1
$17.57
Decision
4
$4.39
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Santos 15-1
VS
9-3 Marshall
5'7"
height
5'9"
155 lb
weight
145 lb
72"
reach
72"
26
age
27
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.8
strikes landed / min
3.7
46%
striking accuracy
34%
1.9
strikes absorbed / min
4.2
57%
striking defence
53%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
2.7
0%
takedown accuracy
41%
0%
takedown defence
50%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market28% vs 27%
Consensus18 of 60 analysts
Sharpest angleMarshall by Decision — 4 of 5 method calls
Recommendation
Back Marshall @ $3.75 · fair $3.51
+7% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“Mairon Santos can win by knockout”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“Mairon Santos can win by knockout”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Francis Marshall
“my pick is Francis Marshall”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Francis Marshall
“my pick is Francis Marshall”
KU
Kunath picks Francis Marshall VALUE
“let's go with Francis Marshall at 7,000 reason being Alex Morono is a tough guy he's been hard to put away doesn't get knocked out all that often but I do think that Carlos Leal probably knocks him out sometime in the first two rounds this week just with the way that leol approaches the game the aggression the power the forward movement Alex Morono gives up a lot of real estate slows down as the fight goes on so I can see a round three finish for Leal as well and then for Bobby green I know that people were saying well look at the fight with James Lop poofy didn't knock out lop and when you look at that fight that listen that kid is Young and Peruvian peruvians got some of the best durability in the world King Green's been knocked out and knocked down multiple times in the UFC we've seen it though I think the most likely outcome in this fight is that Hy ends up knocking him out in the first or second round so I'm not really interested in those two Francis Marshall is going to be the cheapest most viable play because I think he does go the full three rounds even in a loss and I think he might get a takedown or two here so if he's our punt play this week it leaves us with 8600 left over per fighter”
Kunath picks Francis Marshall VALUE
“let's go with Francis Marshall at 7,000 reason being Alex Morono is a tough guy he's been hard to put away doesn't get knocked out all that often but I do think that Carlos Leal probably knocks him out sometime in the first two rounds this week just with the way that leol approaches the game the aggression the power the forward movement Alex Morono gives up a lot of real estate slows down as the fight goes on so I can see a round three finish for Leal as well and then for Bobby green I know that people were saying well look at the fight with James Lop poofy didn't knock out lop and when you look at that fight that listen that kid is Young and Peruvian peruvians got some of the best durability in the world King Green's been knocked out and knocked down multiple times in the UFC we've seen it though I think the most likely outcome in this fight is that Hy ends up knocking him out in the first or second round so I'm not really interested in those two Francis Marshall is going to be the cheapest most viable play because I think he does go the full three rounds even in a loss and I think he might get a takedown or two here so if he's our punt play this week it leaves us with 8600 left over per fighter”
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Mairon Santos
“AmMagomed Ankalaevagomed Ankalaevda Carlos Lealindo going with over 2.5 or no fight starts round three or Carlos Leal to win”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Mairon Santos
“AmMagomed Ankalaevagomed Ankalaevda Carlos Lealindo going with over 2.5 or no fight starts round three or Carlos Leal to win”
DR
DRYWALL picks Mairon Santos
“I'm gonna pick aie it's been the name it's been the name I think he decisions him but the pick is Aussie”
DRYWALL picks Mairon Santos
“I'm gonna pick aie it's been the name it's been the name I think he decisions him but the pick is Aussie”
AM
AA MMA picks Mairon Santos
“I have to go with Mairon Santos his performance in The Ultimate Fighter was nothing but incredible”
AA MMA picks Mairon Santos
“I have to go with Mairon Santos his performance in The Ultimate Fighter was nothing but incredible”
AM
AA MMA picks Mairon Santos
“yo creo que debería ser una victoria fácil para Mairon Santos Aquí no más quieren enseñarle el mundo otra vez de quién es introducirlo ual que logra hacer eso para todos nosotros”
AA MMA picks Mairon Santos
“yo creo que debería ser una victoria fácil para Mairon Santos Aquí no más quieren enseñarle el mundo otra vez de quién es introducirlo ual que logra hacer eso para todos nosotros”
JO
JorgeFlyingKnee picks Mairon Santos
“I think you have to go uh Mairon Santos here I'm going probably just go UD as well”
JorgeFlyingKnee picks Mairon Santos
“I think you have to go uh Mairon Santos here I'm going probably just go UD as well”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Francis Marshall VALUE
“you got to take Francis Francis Marshall here a little sprankle at plus 250”
$3.50
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Francis Marshall VALUE
“you got to take Francis Francis Marshall here a little sprankle at plus 250”
$3.50
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“I'm going to pick Mar Rocky to get a win as long as he ain't stupid it should be very easy I said King Green he's St out to him no more man”
MMA Prophecy picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“I'm going to pick Mar Rocky to get a win as long as he ain't stupid it should be very easy I said King Green he's St out to him no more man”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mairon Santos
“I'm going to pick Maran here”
We Want Picks picks Mairon Santos
“I'm going to pick Maran here”
LE
Lepresident picks Mairon Santos
“he's the person that I've gone with”
Lepresident picks Mairon Santos
“he's the person that I've gone with”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Santos15-1
W
Naimov
Dec '25
W
Yusuff
May '25
W
Marshall
Mar '25
W
Ofli
Aug '24
Marshall9-3
W
Brennan
Apr '26
W
Silva
Feb '26
L
Santos
Mar '25
W
Buzukja
Aug '24
L
Dulgarian
Aug '23