MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
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BEST PRICE We back Burns over Brady · Welterweight Our fair value$2.47 Marathon Bet pays above fair $2.68
Where to back Burns best price · region · EV vs fair $2.47
US Caesars $2.60 +5%
UK Unibet (UK) $2.50 +1%
EU Marathon Bet $2.68 +8%
AU TAB $2.60 +5%
Consensus25 picks · conf 50/99
Brady 13
12 Burns
bBTMLC pick Brady
How it endsmethod calls · Burns · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $4.94
Decision 4 $4.94
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Brady 18-2 VS 22-9 Burns
5'10" height 5'10"
169 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 71"
33 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.1 strikes landed / min 3.2
55% striking accuracy 48%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
60% striking defence 52%
3.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
52% takedown accuracy 37%
85% takedown defence 53%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market40% vs 37%
Consensus12 of 25 analysts
Sharpest angleBurns by KO/TKO — 4 of 8 method calls
Recommendation Back Burns @ $2.68 · fair $2.47 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Sean Brady
TD The Rambling Dad picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Gilbert Burns “I have Gilbert Burns I'm going to pick Gilbert Burns”
EM Elijah House MMA picks Sean Brady “I am going with Sean Brady yeah I think he'll win”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Sean Brady VALUE “I'm going with Sean Brady I think it's his time”
CC Combat Sports Central picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “I give the edge to Gilbert Burns to win the fight and you're getting him at plus 154 which is amazing value in my opinion” $2.54
WP We Want Picks picks Sean Brady VALUE “I like Sean Sean Brady to win”
PR Premium-Picks picks Gilbert Burns “give me Gilbert Burns in this situation”
PR Premium-Picks picks Sean Brady “give me Gilbert Burns actually”
HB Half The Battle picks Sean Brady VALUE “so yeah I'm going Sean Sean Brady here in the main event” $1.54
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Gilbert Burns “Gilbert Burns is predicted to come out on top winning five out of five simulations”
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “Gilbert Burns money line”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Brady18-2
W Buckley Decision · R3 May '26
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Edwards Submission · R4 Mar '25
W Burns Decision · R5 Sep '24
W Gastelum Submission · R3 Dec '23
Burns22-9
L Malott KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Brady Decision · R5 Sep '24
L Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
L Muhammad Decision · R5 May '23