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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
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BEST PRICE We back Peek over Ashmouz · Lightweight Our fair value$1.72 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.89
Where to back Peek best price · region · EV vs fair $1.72
US DraftKings $1.85 +8%
UK Betway $1.80 +5%
EU Pinnacle $1.89 +10%
AU PlayUp $1.80 +5%
Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Ashmouz 4
9 Peek
BJMW pick Ashmouz
How it endsmethod calls · Peek · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $2.29
Decision 1 $6.88
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ashmouz 8-1 VS 9-3 Peek
5'9" height 5'9"
155 lb weight 155 lb
69" reach 70"
31 age 31
Orthodox stance Switch
2.9 strikes landed / min 4.4
50% striking accuracy 53%
4.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.9
55% striking defence 43%
4.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
50% takedown accuracy 50%
60% takedown defence 52%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market58% vs 53%
Consensus9 of 13 analysts
Sharpest anglePeek by KO/TKO — 3 of 4 method calls
Recommendation Back Peek @ $1.89 · fair $1.72 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Trevor Peek “I think Trevor Peek Gonna Knock this guy out”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Trevor Peek “I'm picking Trevor Peek to outd doog yanal ashm”
WP We Want Picks picks Yanal Ashmouz “I'm picking yal ashmos”
PR Premium-Picks picks Trevor Peek “Trevor Peeks for me”
HB Half The Battle picks Trevor Peek VALUE “I'm going Trevor Peek Peek to outwork yanal ashm” $1.80
WI WEIGHING IN picks Trevor Peek “Trevor Peek is a great fighter to watch that Trevor Peek always brings the fight”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Trevor Peek “I'll pick Ryan span”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Trevor Peek VALUE “I think I love Trevor Peek here I I don't know why I hate Yan know I think he's horrible um and we don't say that about a lot of people”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Trevor Peek VALUE “my subscribers and I went with Trevor Peek”
WP We Want Picks picks Trevor Peek VALUE “I'm going Trevor Trevor Peek Peak”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Trevor Peek VALUE “I'm picking Trevor Peak in this fight” $1.83
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Yanal Ashmouz “I got Yanal Ashmouz getting this one done”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ashmouz8-1
L Salkilld Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Peek Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Duncan Decision · R3 Jul '23
W Patterson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '23
Peek9-3
L Ashmouz Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Campbell Decision · R3 Apr '24
W Yahya Decision · R3 Oct '23
L Mariscal Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Gonzalez KO/TKO · R1 Feb '23