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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
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SB GB Brady vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight NS JA Silva vs AndradeFight Card · Women'S Flyweight SG KN Garcia vs NelsonFight Card · Catchweight CD MS Durden vs SchnellFight Card · Bantamweight YA TP Ashmouz vs PeekFight Card · Lightweight CP RZ Padilla vs ZhuPreliminary Card · Lightweight ID BM Dulgarian vs MarottePreliminary Card · Featherweight AL FS Lima vs SantosPreliminary Card · Flyweight GS YZ Santos vs ZhaPreliminary Card · Featherweight JA VD Amorim vs DemopoulosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AP DB Petroski vs BudkaPreliminary Card · Catchweight NF ŽR Fletcher vs RamaškaPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Garcia over Nelson · Catchweight Our fair value$1.48 TABtouch pays above fair $1.54
Where to back Garcia best price · region · EV vs fair $1.48
US BetMGM $1.54 +4%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.54 +4%
EU LiveScore Bet (EU) $1.54 +4%
AU TABtouch $1.54 +4%
Consensus15 picks · conf 36/99
Garcia 11
4 Nelson
bTMULH pick Garcia
How it endsmethod calls · Garcia · crowd line
KO/TKO 10 $1.63
Decision 1 $16.27
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Garcia 19-5 VS 17-6-1 Nelson
6'0" height 5'11"
145 lb weight 155 lb
75" reach 71"
34 age 35
Southpaw stance Switch
5.0 strikes landed / min 2.7
56% striking accuracy 44%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
46% striking defence 61%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
40% takedown accuracy 31%
88% takedown defence 56%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 65%
Consensus11 of 15 analysts
Sharpest angleGarcia by KO/TKO — 10 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Back Garcia @ $1.54 · fair $1.48 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Steve Garcia “I'm going Steve Garcia here this week”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Steve Garcia VALUE “I'm going with Steve Garcia to beat Kyle Nelson”
DR DRYWALL picks Steve Garcia “Steve Garcia is going to knock his ass out because Kyle Nelson doesn't know gonna hit Kyle Nelson's barck and he's”
WP We Want Picks picks Steve Garcia VALUE “I'm going to pick him to win this fight”
PR Premium-Picks picks Kyle Nelson VALUE “I'm GNA stab Kyle Nelson”
HB Half The Battle picks Steve Garcia VALUE “I'll pick Steve Garcia Steve Garcia Garcia here” $1.56
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Steve Garcia VALUE “raan is going to be the call”
TP The Darce Podcast picks Kyle Nelson VALUE “I had Kyle Nelson by decision”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Steve Garcia VALUE “Give me the mem machine Give me Steve Garcia”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Steve Garcia “I'm going to be picking Steve Steve Garcia because he's autistic and he's [__] and he looks down syndrome but he's got power”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Steve Garcia VALUE “I'm going with Steve Garcia to win” $1.56
DR DRYWALL picks Steve Garcia VALUE “Steve Garcia is taking on Kyle Nelson I don't care what anybody says that this is gonna be a hard fight Kyle Nelson is also going real Lumberjack ... I think Steve is going to bring out some new testament style retribution on Kyle Nelson I do not care yeah and Kyle Nelson does not have a great style”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Garcia19-5
L Lopes KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Onama KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Kattar Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Seung-woo KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24
Nelson17-6-1
L McKinney KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Frevola Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Garcia KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Algeo KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Padilla Decision · R3 Sep '23