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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
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RM BD Moicano vs DenisMain Card · Lightweight NI BA Imavov vs AllenMain Card · Middleweight WG JB Gomis vs BritoMain Card · Featherweight BB KJ Battle vs JoussetMain Card · Welterweight MC GM Charrière vs MirandaMain Card · Featherweight FZ MF Ziam vs FrevolaMain Card · Lightweight IC IE Cuțelaba vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight OS JD Sy vs Da-woonPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight ĽK RR Klein vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Lightweight TL VM Lapilus vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AP DZ Pérez vs ZheleznyakovaPreliminary Card · Catchweight DB VA Bárez vs AltamiranoPreliminary Card · Flyweight JC NC Cavalcanti vs CornollePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight CD BO Duncan vs OkiPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Lapilus over Morales · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.25 Betway pays above fair $1.29
Where to back Lapilus best price · region · EV vs fair $1.25
US BetMGM $1.27 +2%
UK Betway $1.29 +3%
EU Coolbet $1.28 +2%
AU Unibet $1.26 +1%
Consensus16 picks · conf 38/99
Lapilus 14
2 Morales
JMURSB pick Lapilus
How it endsmethod calls · Lapilus · crowd line
Decision 9 $1.25
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lapilus 21-4 VS 16-10 Morales
— height 5'7"
— weight 136 lb
— reach 70"
34 age 35
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.6 strikes landed / min 4.0
48% striking accuracy 36%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
62% striking defence 53%
0.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
33% takedown accuracy 30%
77% takedown defence 65%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market80% vs 78%
Consensus14 of 16 analysts
Sharpest angleLapilus by Decision — 9 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Lapilus @ $1.29 · fair $1.25 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Vince Morales VALUE “Bo I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_83 going to go with lud Ľudovít Klein”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm gonna take Taylor Lapilus”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “my subscribers and I went with Taylor Lapilus” $1.29
PR Premium-Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “give me lapos to win the fight” $1.29
WP We Want Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “tayor lapis is not a finisher he will win this fight”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Taylor Lapilus “give me Taylor Lapilus I just feel comfortable taking Taylor Lapilus in this 2.5 I'm good but give me Taylor Lapilus”
MA MMA Attic picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “the model not quite as confident but still giving Taylor Lapilus The Edge” $1.76
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Taylor Lapilus “give me Taylor Lapilus”
DR DRYWALL picks Taylor Lapilus “picking Taylor Lapilus to do really”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm William Gomising to pick laulis”
BM Brando MMA picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm gonna go Taylor Lapilus”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “I think uh lapolis I think the over hits and I think it's probably a a point karate decision for lapis here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lapilus21-4
W Morales Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Stamann Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Basharat Decision · R3 Jan '24
W Loughran Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Issa Decision · R3 Sep '16
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22