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UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Smith v Petrino Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus52 picks · conf 70/99
Smith 17
35 Petrino
HFFP1B pick Smith
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Smith 38-20 VS 13-2 Petrino
6'4" height 6'2"
206 lb weight 250 lb
76" reach 78"
37 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 3.4
49% striking accuracy 64%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
46% striking defence 69%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.4
26% takedown accuracy 32%
50% takedown defence 53%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 1.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TM The MMA-Holes picks Vitor Petrino “Vitor Petrino wins by a de go Anthony Smith staring that Anthony Vitor Petrino um you know we might get some weather the first round uh Vitor Petrino Vitor Petrino um and does he finish Anthony”
SP Sportshouse picks Anthony Smith VALUE “Anthony Smith marked as an underdog retains potential for a surprise win against the rising Vitor Petrino”
WP WTL (Where's The Line?) Sports Betting Podcast picks Vitor Petrino VALUE “I have to go with patrino in this one and I will be adding something in my parlay with him at the end of this segment” $1.24
CZ Comedian Black Zeus picks Anthony Smith “I got Anthony Smith being able to piece him apart”
WP We Want Picks picks Vitor Petrino “Vitor Petrino Pino should absolutely win this fight he's going to be bigger faster younger stronger he also has devastating power in his hands”
DS Dynes Sports picks Vitor Petrino “I like Vitor Petrino I think he gets it done”
FR FREESTYLEBENDER picks Anthony Smith “I'm going to go Anthony Anthony Smith Anthony Smith lionhart”
IP It's Time - UFC Picks picks Vitor Petrino VALUE “my pick is also Vitor Petrino I see right now and um you know I think honestly you gotta decide between you know Pereira Petrino you maybe get two if you like if you do like other dogs on the card”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Anthony Smith “it's patrino or pass ring I'm not getting to Smith”
TH TheWeasle picks Vitor Petrino “Vitor Petrino is way too powerful I think he takes whatever's left of Smith's chin gets his big win and climbs up in the ranking” $1.17
EP Ebays Fight Predictions picks Anthony Smith “I think Vitor Petrino is the side here”
MM Meo on MMA picks Vitor Petrino “I am going with Vitor Petrino here by decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Smith38-20
L Mingyang KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
L Reyes KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
L Dolidze Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Petrino Submission · R1 May '24
L Jr. KO/TKO · R3 Dec '23
Petrino13-2
W Asplund Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Petersen KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
W Lane Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Jacoby KO/TKO · R3 Dec '24
L Smith Submission · R1 May '24