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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Borralho v Craig
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Borralho 17-2
VS
17-10-1 Craig
6'1"
height
6'3"
185 lb
weight
205 lb
75"
reach
76"
33
age
38
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.0
strikes landed / min
3.2
48%
striking accuracy
48%
2.2
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
55%
striking defence
52%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
29%
takedown accuracy
60%
56%
takedown defence
80%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FA
FanDuel picks Caio Borralho
“I'm taking my shot with Caio Borralho”
FanDuel picks Caio Borralho
“I'm taking my shot with Caio Borralho”
MA
MMA Attic picks Paul Craig VALUE
“Craig is showing good value but the model odds of plus 241 equates to a 29% chance of winning the fight that is a tough bet for anyone except the biggest Paul Craig fans”
$3.41
MMA Attic picks Paul Craig VALUE
“Craig is showing good value but the model odds of plus 241 equates to a 29% chance of winning the fight that is a tough bet for anyone except the biggest Paul Craig fans”
$3.41
IP
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Paul Craig
“I have I've got Caio Caio Borralhoorralho knocking him out in this fight”
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Paul Craig
“I have I've got Caio Caio Borralhoorralho knocking him out in this fight”
IP
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“I have Ismael Caio Borralhoonfim winning I do think he is better all around”
It's Time - UFC Picks picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“I have Ismael Caio Borralhoonfim winning I do think he is better all around”
TH
TheWeasle picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I think Balo has better fundamental striking he's going to stop the takedowns and win this fight through a decision”
$5.30
TheWeasle picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I think Balo has better fundamental striking he's going to stop the takedowns and win this fight through a decision”
$5.30
HA
Harry1of1 picks Paul Craig
“I'm going to pick KY Bri I'm going to bet on Kyle bro with the weekend”
Harry1of1 picks Paul Craig
“I'm going to pick KY Bri I'm going to bet on Kyle bro with the weekend”
SD
Split Decision picks Caio Borralho
“I got Caio Borralho winning the fight”
Split Decision picks Caio Borralho
“I got Caio Borralho winning the fight”
GM
GC MMA picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“Caio Borralho is not losing to Paul Craig if if Brendan Allen is taking you out by finish Caio Borralho has definitely [ __ ] got him guys Paul Craig [ __ ] sucks”
GC MMA picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“Caio Borralho is not losing to Paul Craig if if Brendan Allen is taking you out by finish Caio Borralho has definitely [ __ ] got him guys Paul Craig [ __ ] sucks”
DM
Daredevil MMA picks Caio Borralho
“I'm going to go with Caio Borralho here and moving on we have Mich Michelle Pereira and Ihor Potieria I'm just going to say this I think Jack slack tweeted this on Twitter and I wholeheartedly agree he said that Michel Pereira is on a six-fight win streak and yor Pia's on a one-fight doesn't look terrible streak I like ehor I think he's improving I think silly little dude but Michelle Pereira is going to [ __ ] run through him if we're being honest there's just nothing to show us that that's not going to happen so mishell is a very safe bet I don't know why they don't have odds here but [ __ ] whatever um and then we got vtor patrino who's going to [ __ ] knock out Anthony Smith this is what I mean when I'm breaking down this card guys there's not a lot of like technique for me to break down because these fights aren't super high level and a lot of them are very obvious um but yeah VOR patrino is going to kill Anthony Smith uh Smith just ain't him man he ain't got that dog in him he just got killed by Cleo rry and now he's going up against an even like not as deadly but just as athletic you no he's not as he's going against another athletic heavyweight all right so I think VOR petrino's by knockout or boring as [ __ ] decision one of the two is the obvious pick moving into the co oh my [ __ ] god this pay-per-view sucks dude this [ __ ] is so bad anyways um we got Jonathan Martinez and José Aldo uh as much as I'd love Aldo to win when he's it's his last fight on his contract he's really just fighting this so that he can go do some boxing he's not actually trying to like really do make a run here if he wins this he's done if he loses this he's done so I don't think the incentive is quite there for him him and I just don't see a reason for him to win this I think Jonathan Martinez might win this by like pretty entertaining decision or leg kick TKO it's going to be the Battle of leg kicks actually it's going to be it's kind it's a very sick fight but a very predictable one I don't really see um José Aldo winning this he's old as [ __ ] he's hasn't fought in two years dude and like I don't know I think they were originally going to give him Dominick Cruz and I think that's a lot Drakkar Kloser fight I actually think he can win that fight but no I think Jonathan Martinez is the safe bet here and then moving into the flyweight title fight our main event I think Steve Erceg is gonna win I really do I think I just got this feeling man Alexandre Pantoja is kind of a little worse technically in a lot of places than Steve Erceg is but I think he might just out physicality him I see this fight going two ways either Steve Erceg is just a little cleaner and he just you know makes his out here and there just barely or Alexandre Pantoja just big brothers him around and although Steve Erceg is being much more technical he just can't keep up with the physicality and the pace that Alexandre Pantoja has even if Alexandre Pantoja gets tired every round like he usually does he'll keep getting that second R wind which is really weird he is some of the weirdest cardio in the sport but I think although that is likely phys although Alexandre Pantoja physicality might be a big issue here I also think Steve ersing might just be able to hurt him on the feet Matt snow was able to hurt Alexandre Pantoja on the feet very like he did it a few times and although Pano's got a great chin I think Steve Erceg can kind of find his range and stay back excuse me and stay back and just kind of win a decision I don't see him finishing Alexandre Pantoja but I feel like if he can go five rounds and you know outs scramble Alexandre Pantoja on bottom and not get stuck there like uh Royal did or not get trapped with his back taken like Marino did then there's not a lot Alexandre Pantoja can do to him on the feet just technique wise and I think Steve Erceg will be able to point Freight from the feet if he's able to scramble up from bottom and I kind of see that happening so I'm leaning a St Steve Erceg decision about 6040 not sure if that's what's going to be happening but he's going to be using that self pod jab he's going to be you know prodding out and he's not a knockout guy I see a lot of people saying oh he's going to knock him out because they saw the match s fight but he's only knocked out two people ever dude he's a Jiu-Jitsu guy I don't think he's going to be submitting Alexandre Pantoja but I think he's going to be using that Jiu-Jitsu enough to get some reversals on bottom to get some escapes and then he's going to you know once it's on the feet he's going to use it to point fight with penta and maybe win it there those are my picks uh I know it's kind of a boring video because these fights kind of suck but we should be back next week with a banger uh us see 304 card Builder is the next one and I got a spicy 304 card so make sure you turn tune tune in oh my [ __ ] God I can't speak make sure you tune in to that make sure you subscribe and give the video a like thank you all very much peace”
Daredevil MMA picks Caio Borralho
“I'm going to go with Caio Borralho here and moving on we have Mich Michelle Pereira and Ihor Potieria I'm just going to say this I think Jack slack tweeted this on Twitter and I wholeheartedly agree he said that Michel Pereira is on a six-fight win streak and yor Pia's on a one-fight doesn't look terrible streak I like ehor I think he's improving I think silly little dude but Michelle Pereira is going to [ __ ] run through him if we're being honest there's just nothing to show us that that's not going to happen so mishell is a very safe bet I don't know why they don't have odds here but [ __ ] whatever um and then we got vtor patrino who's going to [ __ ] knock out Anthony Smith this is what I mean when I'm breaking down this card guys there's not a lot of like technique for me to break down because these fights aren't super high level and a lot of them are very obvious um but yeah VOR patrino is going to kill Anthony Smith uh Smith just ain't him man he ain't got that dog in him he just got killed by Cleo rry and now he's going up against an even like not as deadly but just as athletic you no he's not as he's going against another athletic heavyweight all right so I think VOR petrino's by knockout or boring as [ __ ] decision one of the two is the obvious pick moving into the co oh my [ __ ] god this pay-per-view sucks dude this [ __ ] is so bad anyways um we got Jonathan Martinez and José Aldo uh as much as I'd love Aldo to win when he's it's his last fight on his contract he's really just fighting this so that he can go do some boxing he's not actually trying to like really do make a run here if he wins this he's done if he loses this he's done so I don't think the incentive is quite there for him him and I just don't see a reason for him to win this I think Jonathan Martinez might win this by like pretty entertaining decision or leg kick TKO it's going to be the Battle of leg kicks actually it's going to be it's kind it's a very sick fight but a very predictable one I don't really see um José Aldo winning this he's old as [ __ ] he's hasn't fought in two years dude and like I don't know I think they were originally going to give him Dominick Cruz and I think that's a lot Drakkar Kloser fight I actually think he can win that fight but no I think Jonathan Martinez is the safe bet here and then moving into the flyweight title fight our main event I think Steve Erceg is gonna win I really do I think I just got this feeling man Alexandre Pantoja is kind of a little worse technically in a lot of places than Steve Erceg is but I think he might just out physicality him I see this fight going two ways either Steve Erceg is just a little cleaner and he just you know makes his out here and there just barely or Alexandre Pantoja just big brothers him around and although Steve Erceg is being much more technical he just can't keep up with the physicality and the pace that Alexandre Pantoja has even if Alexandre Pantoja gets tired every round like he usually does he'll keep getting that second R wind which is really weird he is some of the weirdest cardio in the sport but I think although that is likely phys although Alexandre Pantoja physicality might be a big issue here I also think Steve ersing might just be able to hurt him on the feet Matt snow was able to hurt Alexandre Pantoja on the feet very like he did it a few times and although Pano's got a great chin I think Steve Erceg can kind of find his range and stay back excuse me and stay back and just kind of win a decision I don't see him finishing Alexandre Pantoja but I feel like if he can go five rounds and you know outs scramble Alexandre Pantoja on bottom and not get stuck there like uh Royal did or not get trapped with his back taken like Marino did then there's not a lot Alexandre Pantoja can do to him on the feet just technique wise and I think Steve Erceg will be able to point Freight from the feet if he's able to scramble up from bottom and I kind of see that happening so I'm leaning a St Steve Erceg decision about 6040 not sure if that's what's going to be happening but he's going to be using that self pod jab he's going to be you know prodding out and he's not a knockout guy I see a lot of people saying oh he's going to knock him out because they saw the match s fight but he's only knocked out two people ever dude he's a Jiu-Jitsu guy I don't think he's going to be submitting Alexandre Pantoja but I think he's going to be using that Jiu-Jitsu enough to get some reversals on bottom to get some escapes and then he's going to you know once it's on the feet he's going to use it to point fight with penta and maybe win it there those are my picks uh I know it's kind of a boring video because these fights kind of suck but we should be back next week with a banger uh us see 304 card Builder is the next one and I got a spicy 304 card so make sure you turn tune tune in oh my [ __ ] God I can't speak make sure you tune in to that make sure you subscribe and give the video a like thank you all very much peace”
WP
We Want Picks picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“I think Caio Borralho absolutely smokes Paul Craig probably finishes Paul Craig”
We Want Picks picks Caio Borralho VALUE
“I think Caio Borralho absolutely smokes Paul Craig probably finishes Paul Craig”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Borralho17-2
W
Ridder
Mar '26
L
Imavov
Sep '25
W
Cannonier
Aug '24
W
Craig
May '24
W
Magomedov
Nov '23
Craig17-10-1
L
Bukauskas
Sep '25
L
Nickal
Nov '24
L
Borralho
May '24
L
Allen
Nov '23
W
Muniz
Jul '23