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UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Bonfim v Pichel Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus36 picks · conf 58/99
Bonfim 33
3 Pichel
HPFPD1 pick Bonfim
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bonfim 20-4 VS 14-4 Pichel
5'8" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 72"
30 age 43
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 3.6
54% striking accuracy 46%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
70% striking defence 55%
1.1 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
33% takedown accuracy 54%
76% takedown defence 25%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Ismael Bonfim “I'm going to go Ismael Bonfim as well Ismael Bonfim in this fight”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE $1.17
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Vinc Pichel VALUE $5.10
MM Magnusisp MMA picks Ismael Bonfim “I'm going to go with Ismael Bonfim”
WP We Want Picks picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE “I have to lean Ismael Bonfim here because Vince Michelle is very tough he's a guy that'll stay in your face he's not very technical but he times things well his offensive wrestling is very good his defense wrestling has some holes in it”
MA MMA Attic picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE “Bon f is a strong bet” $1.43
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ismael Bonfim “I think Bon wins this fight very confident he wins this fight but zero grappling upside and maybe he can finish Vinc Pichel is so tough I kind of think but Bon wins this by by decision”
TH TheWeasle picks Ismael Bonfim “Ismael Bonfim versus Vinc Pichel bfim should absolutely win this”
MM Meo on MMA picks Ismael Bonfim “taking Bon Again by decision”
HA Harry1of1 picks Ismael Bonfim “I'm expecting Ismael Bonfim theme to come out and win that fight just because stylistically it matches up a lot better than some of his past matchups”
DM Daredevil MMA picks Ismael Bonfim “I also think Ismael Bonfim is going to beat uh Vinc Pichel ishma bonfim just got his [ __ ] wrecked by St den”
TB Totally Blitzed picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE “I think Ismael Ismael Bonfimfim will win this fight” $1.18
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bonfim20-4
L Padilla KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
L Sadykhov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
W Pichel Decision · R3 May '24
L Denis Submission · R1 Jul '23
W McKinney KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
Pichel14-4
L García Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Bonfim Decision · R3 May '24
L Madsen Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Aug '21
W Miller Decision · R3 Aug '20