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Costa vs BorjasEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
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Pantoja vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight
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Aldo vs MartinezMain Card · Bantamweight
AS
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Smith vs PetrinoMain Card · Light Heavyweight
MP
IP
Pereira vs PotieriaMain Card · Middleweight
CB
PC
Borralho vs CraigMain Card · Middleweight
JB
JS
Brito vs ShorePreliminary Card · Featherweight
IL
KK
Lucindo vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MO
EB
Orolbai vs BrenerPreliminary Card · Lightweight
DK
JS
Klose vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MR
JM
Ruffy vs MullarkeyEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
DB
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Barbosa vs KareckaitėEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
IB
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Bonfim vs PichelEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
AC
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Costa vs BorjasEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Costa v Borjas
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Costa 15-5
VS
10-5 Borjas
5'4"
height
5'5"
125 lb
weight
126 lb
67"
reach
68"
30
age
28
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.2
strikes landed / min
5.7
48%
striking accuracy
38%
4.1
strikes absorbed / min
4.1
62%
striking defence
65%
2.9
takedowns / 15 min
2.9
54%
takedown accuracy
34%
69%
takedown defence
61%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Alessandro Costa
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa I'm going with Alessandro Costa um yeah man home Home Advantage I believe it's Steve Erceg point scoring fighter as well man this probably going to get decision out of this um yeah I'm I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa”
The Rambling Dad picks Alessandro Costa
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa I'm going with Alessandro Costa um yeah man home Home Advantage I believe it's Steve Erceg point scoring fighter as well man this probably going to get decision out of this um yeah I'm I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“actually taking um Kevin Borjas uh money line got that at plus 115”
$2.15
etoft21 sports picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“actually taking um Kevin Borjas uh money line got that at plus 115”
$2.15
MM
Magnusisp MMA picks Kevin Borjas
“I'm going to pick Alexandro Costa”
Magnusisp MMA picks Kevin Borjas
“I'm going to pick Alexandro Costa”
PP
Prophet Picks picks Alessandro Costa
“I think very highly of [__] Joshua van very highly of Joshua van I think he's such a great Striker the body shots that he was landing on on uh [__] boras in that in their fight incredible”
Prophet Picks picks Alessandro Costa
“I think very highly of [__] Joshua van very highly of Joshua van I think he's such a great Striker the body shots that he was landing on on uh [__] boras in that in their fight incredible”
FA
FanDuel picks Alessandro Costa
“Alessandro Costa price right now for Alessandro Costa to win minus lines on this card Ling Alessandro Costa at minus”
FanDuel picks Alessandro Costa
“Alessandro Costa price right now for Alessandro Costa to win minus lines on this card Ling Alessandro Costa at minus”
FO
ForTheScrappers picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“give me Alessandro Alessandro Costa I'll just go decision”
ForTheScrappers picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“give me Alessandro Alessandro Costa I'll just go decision”
WP
We Want Picks picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“if I had to pick a side here I would go Costa because I personally think there is a wrestling upside”
We Want Picks picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“if I had to pick a side here I would go Costa because I personally think there is a wrestling upside”
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“I do prefer coasta slightly for his grappling upside”
$1.78
Mayo Media Network picks Alessandro Costa VALUE
“I do prefer coasta slightly for his grappling upside”
$1.78
LI
LimpyMMA picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“give me Kevin Borjas for the win”
LimpyMMA picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“give me Kevin Borjas for the win”
LF
Liam Picks Fights picks Alessandro Costa
“I do think that Alessandro Costa has the skills to win this fight”
Liam Picks Fights picks Alessandro Costa
“I do think that Alessandro Costa has the skills to win this fight”
MA
MMA Attic picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“the model has boros as a minus 121 favorite giving him a positive EV of 23% this is a perfect fit for our betting strategy so we lay a bet”
$1.83
MMA Attic picks Kevin Borjas VALUE
“the model has boros as a minus 121 favorite giving him a positive EV of 23% this is a perfect fit for our betting strategy so we lay a bet”
$1.83
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Costa15-5
W
Schnell
Jun '26
W
Nicoll
Apr '26
L
Coria
Sep '25
W
Borjas
May '24
L
Erceg
Nov '23
Borjas10-5
W
Lima
Jun '26
L
Rodríguez
Feb '26
L
Mudaerji
Aug '25
W
Rodríguez
Mar '25
L
Costa
May '24