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MD PY Dvalishvili vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight AV AR Volkov vs RomanovMain Card · Heavyweight NK RS Krylov vs SpannMain Card · Catchweight JM SN Martinez vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight MB GC Bautista vs CannettiMain Card · Bantamweight VP AT Petrino vs TurkaljMain Card · Light Heavyweight KW ŁB Williams vs BrzeskiPreliminary Card · Heavyweight DG RA Grant vs AssunçãoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JF SD Fremd vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight VH TG Henry vs GravelyPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AL JA Lipski vs AldrichPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BS TN Silva vs NamPreliminary Card · Flyweight CH JG Harris vs GoodenPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Martinez v Nurmagomedov Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus10 picks · conf 30/99
Martinez 4
6 Nurmagomedov
MSDK pick Martinez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Martinez 19-6 VS 18-5 Nurmagomedov
5'8" height 5'8"
136 lb weight 136 lb
70" reach 70"
32 age 34
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.5
49% striking accuracy 47%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.1
56% striking defence 57%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
35% takedown accuracy 16%
68% takedown defence 66%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CD Cappers Direct picks Said Nurmagomedov “I I like him in this fight... I just can't see myself landing on Jonathan Martinez... I think this fight I think he goes out he goes out cold I think Said Nurmagomedov ends up... rocking them and I see it ending”
KU Kunath picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I think there's a real chance that he wins this week”
KU Kunath picks Said Nurmagomedov “Jonathan Jonathan Martinez who is just as good everywhere on the feed I think he's going to be able to land strike for strike with Said Nurmagomedov”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I'm gonna pick Jonathan Martinez to get a competitive decision” $3.15
WP We Want Picks picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE “I think Syed wins because this dude just finds ways to freaking win” $92.00
HB Half The Battle picks Said Nurmagomedov “I think that Jonathan Martinez can actually run away with this decision” $1.39
HB Half The Battle picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I have to take the plus 215 on Martinez for risk one unit” $3.15
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though”
KU Kunath picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I would go with Jonathan Martinez as the pick”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Jonathan Martinez VALUE “I'll take Jonathan Martinez”
1M 138 MMA picks Said Nurmagomedov “I'm on the amalgamate outside”
CL Clenbat picks Said Nurmagomedov “I think he should win this one comfortable decision here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Martinez19-6
L McGhee Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Aldo Decision · R3 May '24
W Yañez KO/TKO · R2 Oct '23
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Swanson KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
Nurmagomedov18-5
L Mitchell Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Oliveira Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Gafurov Submission · R1 Oct '23
L Martinez Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Kakhramonov Submission · R2 Dec '22