Choose a fight to analyse
AV
CJ
Volkanovski vs JungMain Card · Featherweight
AS
PY
Sterling vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight
KC
GB
Chimaev vs BurnsMain Card · Welterweight
MD
TT
Dern vs TorresMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
VP
Madsen vs PichelMain Card · Lightweight
IG
DW
Garry vs WeeksPreliminary Card · Welterweight
AH
JF
Hernandez vs FremdPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RP
AL
Pennington vs LaddPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
MM
MG
Malott vs GallPreliminary Card · Welterweight
AO
JV
Oleinik vs VanderaaEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
PR
KH
Rodríguez vs HansenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JA
DS
Arce vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
CJ
Volkanovski vs JungMain Card · Featherweight
AS
PY
Sterling vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight
KC
GB
Chimaev vs BurnsMain Card · Welterweight
MD
TT
Dern vs TorresMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
VP
Madsen vs PichelMain Card · Lightweight
IG
DW
Garry vs WeeksPreliminary Card · Welterweight
AH
JF
Hernandez vs FremdPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RP
AL
Pennington vs LaddPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
MM
MG
Malott vs GallPreliminary Card · Welterweight
AO
JV
Oleinik vs VanderaaEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
PR
KH
Rodríguez vs HansenEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JA
DS
Arce vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Chimaev v Burns
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Chimaev 15-0
VS
22-9 Burns
6'2"
height
5'10"
183 lb
weight
170 lb
75"
reach
71"
32
age
39
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.4
strikes landed / min
3.2
58%
striking accuracy
48%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.6
41%
striking defence
52%
4.3
takedowns / 15 min
2.1
46%
takedown accuracy
37%
100%
takedown defence
53%
2.8
submissions / 15 min
0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ES
etoft21 sports picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
etoft21 sports picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
WP
We Want Picks picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
“i think marcin taibora wins this fight”
We Want Picks picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
“i think marcin taibora wins this fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i think you have to have hazmat in your lineup”
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i think you have to have hazmat in your lineup”
WP
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“Khamzat Chimaev have two takedowns with Gilbert Burns oh boy”
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“Khamzat Chimaev have two takedowns with Gilbert Burns oh boy”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
“he destroys Gilbert Burns he lays waste to him brother”
$5.40
MMA EXPERTS picks Gilbert Burns VALUE
“he destroys Gilbert Burns he lays waste to him brother”
$5.40
HB
Half The Battle picks Khamzat Chimaev
“I'm gonna go on the opposite side take pierrot rodriguez”
$1.83
Half The Battle picks Khamzat Chimaev
“I'm gonna go on the opposite side take pierrot rodriguez”
$1.83
SH
Sherdog.com picks Gilbert Burns
“Gilbert Burns against Khamzat Chimaev and i i'll say here i've avoided that in my bed so i have a video we'll get to it”
Sherdog.com picks Gilbert Burns
“Gilbert Burns against Khamzat Chimaev and i i'll say here i've avoided that in my bed so i have a video we'll get to it”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i'm really high on Khamzat Chimaev in this fight you know this is going to be a big step in the competition but i kind of just feel like he runs through Gilbert Burns here so i'm going to have a ton of chemiev”
$1.40
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i'm really high on Khamzat Chimaev in this fight you know this is going to be a big step in the competition but i kind of just feel like he runs through Gilbert Burns here so i'm going to have a ton of chemiev”
$1.40
CM
Cyclone MMA picks Gilbert Burns
“i have Gilbert Burns winning this fight i have Gilbert Burns winning”
Cyclone MMA picks Gilbert Burns
“i have Gilbert Burns winning this fight i have Gilbert Burns winning”
WP
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i do think shamaive absolutely dominates here his wrestling is ridiculous and that's the clearest path in the world and clear pick obvious pick i think the odds are correct”
$10.40
We Want Picks picks Khamzat Chimaev VALUE
“i do think shamaive absolutely dominates here his wrestling is ridiculous and that's the clearest path in the world and clear pick obvious pick i think the odds are correct”
$10.40
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Chimaev15-0
L
Strickland
May '26
W
Plessis
Aug '25
W
Whittaker
Oct '24
W
Usman
Oct '23
W
Holland
Sep '22
Burns22-9
L
Malott
Apr '26
L
Morales
May '25
L
Brady
Sep '24
L
Maddalena
Mar '24
L
Muhammad
May '23