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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · breakdown

UFC Fight Night Kape Vs Almabaev UNDERDOG Of The Card!

BM Bert MMA58% hit
16 months ago 6W–4L · +2.1u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
DS Danny Silva v Lucas Almeida MONEYLINE WON
“we got guys like Esteban Ribovics we got Hyder Amil William Gomis Danny Barlow an undefeated Prospect Mário Pinto an undefeated Prospect Chepe Mariscal is looking pretty good um that's honestly about it to be honest Ramazan Temirov if he's able to get the win here he's going to be a big name and a big Prospect as well uh for his country in the UFC so I think that's going to be an interesting one there at Flyway but we're going to give you guys my Underdog of the card and kind of rank the the top few that I'm thinking for UFC Fight Night Manel Kape versus alab bayv of course if you do want to see all the bets I am making for this EVENT_DETAILS check that pin comment down below it's not just bets uh you get to talk to actual UFC fighters who get the prospect list for the best fighters outside the UFC and like four other great perks so check out that comment and check out all the amazing perks uh you get when you become a channel member but let's get it started with the first fight of the night Charles Johnson Ramazan Temirov well Charles was going to be a high uh Underdog of the card wasn't going to be my Underdog of the card but I was going to feel pretty good about Charles Johnson as an underdog he's not anymore he's a minus 110 this is a 5050 fight I was trying to tell you guys earlier on in the week when I predicted Charles and he was at plus 110 now he's is at minus 110 so sorry he's not really an underdog anymore in the UFC flyweight division so he's not going to be my dog of the card as the odds are minus 110 not a lot of there uh value there uh to be betting Charles at minus 110 so I'm going to go Charles to win for sure he's a good underdog if you're able to get that plus uh 100 or better but yeah you guys missed out you guys missed out if you're a channel member we've already bet Charles Johnson at plus money so we go on to the next one Lucas Almeida and Danny Silva this is my number two dog of the card actually my number three my number three I take it back I take it back number three dog of the card is Lucas Almeida this is a 5050 fight they odd started out minus 110 both ways and I think that's how it should be it should be a minus 110 fight and I think it's a dogger pass for sure as again Lucas hits harder um Danny might land a little bit more volume and mix in a takedown or two but I think the judges will see the bigger shots that Lucas is able to land U and he'll get the win very very slightly on the J scorecards again don't bet the favorite here there's like no value there plus 172 is crazy so again top three for sure is going to be Lucas Almeida as an underdog Luana kolina I feel very very good about her she's the favorite there Montana delar Roa is definitely not going to be my Underdog of the card again I feel very very solid on Lana Carolina going out there as the favorite and getting that unanimous decision would wouldn't be surprised if she goes out there in 3027 is so no Montana is not going to be my Underdog of the card then we got number two my second best Underdog of the card Andrea Lee am I confident in Andrea Lee heck no I am not confident in Andrea Lee who is going to be confident in Andrea Lee going out there and winning a fight in 2025 nobody but plus 180 is ridiculous is ridiculous JJ Aldrich we look at her last few fights she's 50/50 with Veronica Hardy easily loses that fight she's the underdog with Montana delar Roa I I don't know why they have her as such a big favor just out of nowhere against Andrea Lee just because Andrea is on a losing streak but if you look at who she's losing to some super highlevel names in there uh we look at some of them Miranda Maverick ranked Natalia Silva top five Macy Barber top five viviani top 10 like these aren't scrubs in the women's flyweight division so uh plus 180 Great Value I think she wins am I confident no but all the value is sitting on Andrea Lee there uh John castan Douglas over there on dra I feel good about John Casten of of course if you're getting plus 235 it's a dogger pass at that point it's not really a parlay piece on John castan I think he wins I think we missed out on every bit of value on John castanada at this point it is dogger pass but there are much better dogs then Douglas Silva Deon dra Chepe Mariscal another one it's dogger pass just because of how wide these odds are now again you were originally able to get minus 260 that would have been parlay minus 260 is parlay on Chepe Mariscal Mone skull you lost all that value it's another dogger pass but not an amazing dog I mean there's other dogs on this card that are definitely better Mário Pinto and Austen Lane this is my number four so so far we got number three Lucas Almeida number two Andrea Le my number four dog of the card is Austen Lane it's Austen Lane I think this fight should be a lot closer on the betting odds it's heavyweight Mario this is his toughest fight to date Austin has KO power he's got good wrestling ability and he's getting better and better every single fight don't get me wrong I got Mario pinu round one knockout the value is all on Austin like do not let me catch any of you guys betting on Mário Pinto and minus 500 putting this man in your parlay the fight should be a lot closer at least the minus 300s if not maybe even the minus 200s as well uh for Mario pinu he should be the favorite but this much is crazy is crazy next one Sam Patterson Danny Barlow again another dogger patch there's a lot of these fights here that I would not parlay and that is including Danny Barlow Danny Barlo Mário Pinto Jose mtis skull John castanada these are all big favorites that you should not be parlaying again you could have parlayed Jose earlier on in those betting odds Danny Barlow you really never got any good odds cuz they started out minus 300 just not good value on Danny Barlow the dogger pass is there again for Sam Patterson but you'd have to go decision because he's not going to get Danny Barlow is not going to get submitted I feel it would have to be a decision but um again there's better odds uh and better underdogs than Sam Patterson on this card but again doger pass for sure do not be do not be betting Danny Barlow at 3 to one those are crazy odds after a split decision with Nico Veri tinnikov don't be bad on that William Gomis Hyder Amil this is a good dog this is number five on my list is Hyder Amil plus 176 uh is a good dog and has a good chance of going out there an upsetting there's obviously um a good bet to be made on inside the distance decisional action which I'll talk about in my betting breakdown video minus 155 definitely look at that but money money line wise there's a better dog that has uh about the same odds but you know is I'm much more confident in actually going out there and winning cuz Haider I don't think he wins that fight uh Esteban Ribovics hakaras those odds are kind of right right where they should be again the value is on the dog but not a lot of value at all there Manel Kape Asu Almabayev I feel pretty good about Manel he's one of my more confident picks of the card so no Asu Almabayev is not going to be my Underdog of the card and then ladies and gentlemen my Underdog of the card we have Julian Marquez and Cody Brundage my dog of the card has to be Cody Brundage plus 136 and I think he should be like a 55% favorite something like that I think he should be a I think these odd should honestly be flipped around as Cody is the better wrestler and he could use the wrestling to land some good strikes on the chin of Julian that really is not good Julian marquez's chin has been cracked so many times and Cody has a good powerful right right hand as well I got Cody Brundage winning straight up he is my most com confident Underdog prediction of the card there is still good value with some of the other dogs but he's got to be number one again number one Underdog of the card Cody Brundage number two Lucas Almeida number three Andrea Lee and number four hder aill all of those underdogs have good good value there's actually not a lot of favorites um that have value here on this EVENT_DETAILS let's be honest I'm going to look through Lana Carolina has a little bit of value as of favorite other than that like really Manel Kape has a little bit of value but not a lot to be looked at on this UFC fight night but thank you guys for watching those are my underdogs of the card number one is going to be Cody Brundage uh to win against juliie Marquez again like And subscribe check out that pin comment to get all of my actual bets I have Underdog bets I'm going to announce the prop bets later on this week and uh every week we add a parlay and those parlays have been doing pretty good recently so like subscribe become a channel member and we'll see see you in the next one”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.54 close$1.50
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
RT Ramazan Temirov v Charles Johnson MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to go Charles to win for sure he's a good underdog if you're able to get that plus uh 100 or better but yeah you guys missed out”
Line since pick CLV −11%
◆ entry$1.96 close$2.20
entry: LiveScore Bet · best in any region at publish
LA Lucas Almeida v Danny Silva MONEYLINE LOST
“Lucas Almeida as an underdog Luana kolina I feel very very good about her she's the favorite there Montana delar Roa is definitely not going to be my Underdog of the card again I feel very very solid on Lana Carolina going out there as the favorite and getting that unanimous decision would wouldn't be surprised if she goes out there in 3027 is so no Montana is not going to be my Underdog of the card then we got number two my second best Underdog of the card Andrea Lee am I confident in Andrea Lee heck no I am not confident in Andrea Lee who is going to be confident in Andrea Lee going out there and winning a fight in 2025 nobody but plus 180 is ridiculous is ridiculous JJ Aldrich we look at her last few fights she's 50/50 with Veronica Hardy easily loses that fight she's the underdog with Montana delar Roa I I don't know why they have her as such a big favor just out of nowhere against Andrea Lee just because Andrea is on a losing streak but if you look at who she's losing to some super highlevel names in there uh we look at some of them Miranda Maverick ranked Natalia Silva top five Macy Barber top five viviani top 10 like these aren't scrubs in the women's flyweight division so uh plus 180 Great Value I think she wins am I confident no but all the value is sitting on Andrea Lee there uh John castan Douglas over there on dra I feel good about John Casten of of course if you're getting plus 235 it's a dogger pass at that point it's not really a parlay piece on John castan I think he wins I think we missed out on every bit of value on John castanada at this point it is dogger pass but there are much better dogs then Douglas Silva Deon dra Chepe Mariscal another one it's dogger pass just because of how wide these odds are now again you were originally able to get minus 260 that would have been parlay minus 260 is parlay on Chepe Mariscal Mone skull you lost all that value it's another dogger pass but not an amazing dog I mean there's other dogs on this card that are definitely better Mário Pinto and Austen Lane this is my number four so so far we got number three Lucas Almeida number two Andrea Le my number four dog of the card is Austen Lane it's Austen Lane I think this fight should be a lot closer on the betting odds it's heavyweight Mario this is his toughest fight to date Austin has KO power he's got good wrestling ability and he's getting better and better every single fight don't get me wrong I got Mario pinu round one knockout the value is all on Austin like do not let me catch any of you guys betting on Mário Pinto and minus 500 putting this man in your parlay the fight should be a lot closer at least the minus 300s if not maybe even the minus 200s as well uh for Mario pinu he should be the favorite but this much is crazy is crazy next one Sam Patterson Danny Barlow again another dogger patch there's a lot of these fights here that I would not parlay and that is including Danny Barlow Danny Barlo Mário Pinto Jose mtis skull John castanada these are all big favorites that you should not be parlaying again you could have parlayed Jose earlier on in those betting odds Danny Barlow you really never got any good odds cuz they started out minus 300 just not good value on Danny Barlow the dogger pass is there again for Sam Patterson but you'd have to go decision because he's not going to get Danny Barlow is not going to get submitted I feel it would have to be a decision but um again there's better odds uh and better underdogs than Sam Patterson on this card but again doger pass for sure do not be do not be betting Danny Barlow at 3 to one those are crazy odds after a split decision with Nico Veri tinnikov don't be bad on that William Gomis Hyder Amil this is a good dog this is number five on my list is Hyder Amil plus 176 uh is a good dog and has a good chance of going out there an upsetting there's obviously um a good bet to be made on inside the distance decisional action which I'll talk about in my betting breakdown video minus 155 definitely look at that but money money line wise there's a better dog that has uh about the same odds but you know is I'm much more confident in actually going out there and winning cuz Haider I don't think he wins that fight uh Esteban Ribovics hakaras those odds are kind of right right where they should be again the value is on the dog but not a lot of value at all there Manel Kape Asu Almabayev I feel pretty good about Manel he's one of my more confident picks of the card so no Asu Almabayev is not going to be my Underdog of the card and then ladies and gentlemen my Underdog of the card we have Julian Marquez and Cody Brundage my dog of the card has to be Cody Brundage plus 136 and I think he should be like a 55% favorite something like that I think he should be a I think these odd should honestly be flipped around as Cody is the better wrestler and he could use the wrestling to land some good strikes on the chin of Julian that really is not good Julian marquez's chin has been cracked so many times and Cody has a good powerful right right hand as well I got Cody Brundage winning straight up he is my most com confident Underdog prediction of the card there is still good value with some of the other dogs but he's got to be number one again number one Underdog of the card Cody Brundage number two Lucas Almeida number three Andrea Lee and number four hder aill all of those underdogs have good good value there's actually not a lot of favorites um that have value here on this EVENT_DETAILS let's be honest I'm going to look through Lana Carolina has a little bit of value as of favorite other than that like really Manel Kape has a little bit of value but not a lot to be looked at on this UFC fight night but thank you guys for watching those are my underdogs of the card number one is going to be Cody Brundage uh to win against juliie Marquez again like And subscribe check out that pin comment to get all of my actual bets I have Underdog bets I'm going to announce the prop bets later on this week and uh every week we add a parlay and those parlays have been doing pretty good recently so like subscribe become a channel member and we'll see see you in the next one”
Line since pick CLV −8%
◆ entry$2.85 close$3.10
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
AL Austen Lane v Mário Pinto MONEYLINE LOST
“my number four dog of the card is Austen Lane it's Austen Lane I think this fight should be a lot closer on the betting odds it's heavyweight Mario this is his toughest fight to date Austin has KO power he's got good wrestling ability and he's getting better and better every single fight don't get me wrong I got Mario pinu round one knockout the value is all on Austin”
Line since pick CLV −17%
◆ entry$4.55 close$5.50
entry: Wind Creek (Betfred PA) · best in any region at publish
MP Mário Pinto v Austen Lane PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I got Mario pinu round one knockout the value is all on Austin”
Moneyline since pick CLV +7%
◆ entry$1.28 close$1.20
Pinto’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
SP Sam Patterson v Danny Barlow PROP · DECISION LOST
“the dogger pass is there again for Sam Patterson but you'd have to go decision because he's not going to get Danny Barlow is not going to get submitted”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.65 close$3.65
Patterson’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
HA Hyder Amil v William Gomis MONEYLINE WON
“this is a good dog this is number five on my list is Hyder Amil plus 176 uh is a good dog and has a good chance of going out there an upsetting”
Line since pick CLV −5%
◆ entry$2.70 close$2.85
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
AA Asu Almabayev v Manel Kape MONEYLINE LOST
“Manel Kape Asu Almabayev I feel pretty good about Manel he's one of my more confident picks of the card so no Asu Almabayev is not going to be my Underdog of the card”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$2.85 close$2.90
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
MK Manel Kape v Asu Almabayev MONEYLINE WON
“Manel Kape Asu Almabayev I feel pretty good about Manel he's one of my more confident picks of the card so no Asu Almabayev is not going to be my Underdog of the card”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.50 close$1.50
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish
CB Cody Brundage v Julian Marquez MONEYLINE WON
“my dog of the card has to be Cody Brundage plus 136 and I think he should be like a 55% favorite something like that I think he should be a I think these odd should honestly be flipped around as Cody is the better wrestler and he could use the wrestling to land some good strikes on the chin of Julian that really is not good Julian marquez's chin has been cracked so many times and Cody has a good powerful right right hand as well I got Cody Brundage winning straight up”
Line since pick CLV +12%
◆ entry$2.35 close$2.10
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish