MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
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MK AA Kape vs AlmabayevMain Card · Flyweight CB JM Brundage vs MarquezMain Card · Middleweight NH ER Haqparast vs RibovicsMain Card · Lightweight HA WG Amil vs GomisMain Card · Featherweight SP DB Patterson vs BarlowMain Card · Welterweight MP AL Pinto vs LanePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CM RR Mariscal vs RamosPreliminary Card · Featherweight DS LA Silva vs AlmeidaPreliminary Card · Catchweight JA AL Aldrich vs LeePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight RT CJ Temirov vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Patterson over Barlow · Welterweight Our fair value$3.01 NordicBet pays above fair $3.10
Where to back Patterson best price · region · EV vs fair $3.01
US FanDuel $3.00 -0%
UK Paddy Power $2.88 -4%
EU NordicBet $3.10 +3%
AU SportsBet $3.02 +0%
Consensus58 picks · conf 72/99
Patterson 20
38 Barlow
SMOMAM pick Patterson
How it endsmethod calls · Patterson · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $16.07
Submission 10 $4.82
Decision 2 $24.10
None 1 $48.21
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Patterson 14-2-1 VS 9-1 Barlow
6'3" height 6'2"
170 lb weight 185 lb
78" reach 79"
30 age 30
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.1 strikes landed / min 5.7
57% striking accuracy 47%
2.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.9
57% striking defence 70%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
31% takedown accuracy 66%
71% takedown defence 61%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market33% vs 32%
Consensus20 of 58 analysts
Sharpest anglePatterson by Submission — 10 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Patterson @ $3.10 · fair $3.01 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Danny Barlow VALUE “I'm picking Danny Barlow to win this fight by knockout”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Danny Barlow “my subscribers and I went with Denny Balo” $1.33
MP MMA Prophecy picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm going big Sam bro are you mad boo is the better Striker by a mile and he can kind of grapple”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm going to pick Sam Patterson as the Savage dog lock” $3.72
CZ Czaleo picks Danny Barlow “I'm going D Silva on this one come on Danny Barlow Danny Barlow Silva get it done for your boy Caesar Leo”
FI FightFairy picks Sam Patterson “I'm picking Sam Patterson”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Danny Barlow VALUE “The Undefeated 9-0 Danny Barlow is taking on the Brit that is Sam Patterson Barlo is a contender series Alum and also 2-0 in the EVENT_DETAILS he's finished six of those nine victories and is just 29 years old right now entering his prime”
PH Philyflishow999 picks Danny Barlow “I am going to pick Danny Barlo on here” $1.33
MA MarshhMMA picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm going to say sam Patterson gets it done” $3.50
AP Anik & Florian Podcast picks Danny Barlow “Danny Barlow I'm going a 100 because Sam Patterson keeps that chin High”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Sam Patterson VALUE “and kicking off the main card in the welterweight division Sam Patterson versus Danny Barlow and from the featherweight division William Gomis versus Hider aurane let's go”
WP We Want Picks picks Danny Barlow VALUE “I'm going Danny Barlow period end of story”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Patterson14-2-1
L Page Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Waters KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Barlow KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Crosbie Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Lainesse Submission · R1 Jan '24
Barlow9-1
L Santos Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Patterson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Veretennikov Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Quinlan KO/TKO · R3 Feb '24