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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
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MK AA Kape vs AlmabayevMain Card · Flyweight CB JM Brundage vs MarquezMain Card · Middleweight NH ER Haqparast vs RibovicsMain Card · Lightweight HA WG Amil vs GomisMain Card · Featherweight SP DB Patterson vs BarlowMain Card · Welterweight MP AL Pinto vs LanePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CM RR Mariscal vs RamosPreliminary Card · Featherweight DS LA Silva vs AlmeidaPreliminary Card · Catchweight JA AL Aldrich vs LeePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight RT CJ Temirov vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Pinto over Lane · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.27 NordicBet pays above fair $2.00
Where to back Pinto best price · region · EV vs fair $1.27
US betPARX $1.97 +55%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.97 +55%
EU NordicBet $2.00 +57%
AU TABtouch $1.95 +54%
Consensus56 picks · conf 71/99
Pinto 49
7 Lane
TBRMOT pick Pinto
How it endsmethod calls · Pinto · crowd line
KO/TKO 34 $1.42
Decision 3 $16.09
None 1 $48.28
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pinto 11-0 VS 13-7 Lane
6'5" height 6'6"
255 lb weight 205 lb
79" reach 80"
28 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.0 strikes landed / min 2.5
41% striking accuracy 50%
4.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
69% striking defence 40%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
47% takedown accuracy 30%
55% takedown defence 0%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market79% vs 50%
Consensus49 of 56 analysts
Sharpest anglePinto by KO/TKO — 34 of 38 method calls
Recommendation Back Pinto @ $2.00 · fair $1.27 +57% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I'm going to pick Mário Pinto to knock um Austen Lane in the first or second round”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Mário Pinto “my subscribers and I went with Mário Pinto” $1.28
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Mário Pinto “I'll say the young up and cominging heavyweight gets a knockout win so Mário Pinto for the W” $1.19
CZ Czaleo picks Mário Pinto “it should be Peno getting it done”
BG Bettor in Green picks Mário Pinto “Bobby is on Mário Pinto also he's on Mário Pinto money line uh I mean I guess I will be two just do two units on the pinto money line” $1.18
MA MarshhMMA picks Mário Pinto “I'm going to go Mário Pinto by brutal KO”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I'm going to blindly back the unproven contender series fighter because Austen Lane has no chin and this dude's coming off a KO so if you're coming off a KO at heavyweight fighting Austen Lane with no Chin I'll pick you to win and [ __ ] it I'll make him a lock too I have money riding on this dude this weekend I'm hoping he's good he appears to actually be technical is as a fighter not just a blob so this is not no RIS van Kun have bum level fighter like now R van probably is going to like look all right against blades but I don't know I just cannot trust Austin Lane's chin maybe there's a weakness in the grappling of um of Mário Pinto but I don't think he's going to be as bad as [ __ ] Rellis to Spain bro so I'll back him to I'll back him to Chin Austen Lane hopefully let's move on though to the next fight I'll make him a lock why not”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Austen Lane VALUE “and now from the heavyweight division Mário Pinto versus Austen Lane Lane go Austen Lane”
WP We Want Picks picks Mário Pinto VALUE “Mário Pinto is going to be the pick”
MR MMA ROACH picks Mário Pinto “go Mário Pinto Austin Lane needs to not be in the EVENT_DETAILS anymore”
MR MMA ROACH picks Austen Lane “I'm going pick Austen Lane to win and beat his ass”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Mário Pinto “I think he gets the win here by knockout”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pinto11-0
W Franco Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Diniz KO/TKO · R2 Oct '25
W Lane KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
Lane13-7
L Baraniewski KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Petrino Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Pinto KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
W Despaigne Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Diniz KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24