UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · breakdown
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QS
Quillan Salkilld
v Anshul Jubli
PROP · SUBMISSION
LOST
Quillan Salkilld
v Anshul Jubli
PROP · SUBMISSION
LOST
“final prediction Quillan Salkilldin Quillan Salkilld by submission or TColby ThicknesseO though a decision prop isn't out of the question I'm leaning towards a finish”
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JM
Jonathan Micallef
v Kevin Jousset
PROP · DECISION
WON
Jonathan Micallef
v Kevin Jousset
PROP · DECISION
WON
“my final pick is Jonathan Micallef to win by decision or submission while a TColby ThicknesseO prop is possible if Jonathan Micalleff really pours it on in the later rounds I think the submission or decision is more likely”
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CT
Colby Thicknesse
v Aleksandre Topuria
PROP · DECISION
LOST
Colby Thicknesse
v Aleksandre Topuria
PROP · DECISION
LOST
“my main pick is Cody Steel by decision is Alexandre tapua a legitimate threat to the division and the throne or is he overrated and not on elia's level this fight should answer those questions as he faces an equally aggressive wrestler striker in Colby Thicknesse Colby has a Slicker approach to securing takedowns mixes his strikes well and could pose problems for Alexandre that said I see Alexandre winning possibly by finish Colby fights at a Relentless Pace but Aleksandre Topuria lost his debut by making a similar mistake and will capitalize on Colby Thicknesse's aggression with effective counters a round two TColby ThicknesseO or a dominant decision seems likely col's onor striking could also leave him vulnerable to a submission so keep an eye on alexandre's sub propop final prediction Alexandre tapua TColby ThicknesseO submission decision fight will be an intriguing Clash of kickboxing Styles as both Fighters excel in that area expect competitive exchanges in the pocket but my pick is Wang Cong Cong Wang Cong's effective aggression presents a tough matchup for Bruna Brasil who prefers counter- striking off the back foot additionally Bruna Brasil is moving up from straw weight so her power at this weight remains a question mark while she is sharp she relies heavily on Power and doesn't throw much from the front foot I see Wang Cong pressing forward and controlling the range but likely with more caution after her recent loss she was countered and dropped by Fernandez for being too aggressive inside if Bruna Brasil carries her power up in weight Wang Cong will need to balance her pressure carefully Bruna Brasil could mix in wrestling as Wang Cong has shown some vulnerabilities there but Wang Cong has improved and may have the size and strength advantage to neutralize it in fact we might even see Wang Cong land a takedown of her own as bruna's takedown defense is still exploitable I also expect Wang Cong to Target the body an area where she does solid work Bruna Brasil has had cardio issues before and if Wang Cong forces a high Pace she could fade however Wang Cong's own gas tank will be tested as well final prediction Wang Cong Cong by decision or TColby ThicknesseO Tom Nolan versus veslav borchi is a technical scrap that should deliver action as both Fighters prefer to engage in the pocket while both carry respectable power I expect Viacheslav Borshchev to land the more significant shots Nolan often keeps his chin high and relies on an open guard making him vulnerable to Hooks and uppercuts as the taller fighter he aggressively crashes into range using pressure as his main form of Defense to keep opponents on the back foot however Viacheslav Borshchev has the tools to counter this style I see him timing Nolan with an uppercut or hook leading to a knockout ultimately Nolan's defense is the weaker of the two while he is slowed down slightly his Relentless style remains unchanged my final pick Viacheslav Borshchev by TColby ThicknesseO inside the distance this might be the best technical scrap on the card with Jack Jenkins taking on Gabriel Santos in his backyard Jenkins and all gas no brakes fighter will bring Relentless pressure but Santos matches that intensity I expect them to meet in the middle trading inside where one could get put out however I also anticipate moments of hesitation both stalking within striking range looking for openings ultimately I'm leaning towards Santos he carries more power and jenkins's aggression often leaves him open defensively I do see Jenkins respecting Santos's power enough to fight smarter possibly utilizing leg kicks early but Santos own leg kicks are Anshul Jublist as effective which could force Jenkins to abandon that approach and ramp up his aggression if that happens Santos will stand his ground and likely catch him in the pocket if hurt Jenkins May resort to wrestling where he could find success however Santos has dangerous Jiu-Jitsu and will actively hunt submissions off his back while Jenkins could rack up control time I see him eventually having to disengage or getting caught in a submission final prediction Gabriel Santos by submission or TColby ThicknesseO however Jenkins is tough in game so a decision win for Santos wouldn't shock me also be wary of a possible robbery if it goes to the scorecards Jenkins already got one over emers and that wasn't even in his hometown if it's close expect the Anshul Jublidges to lean his way these two fighters have very similar Styles particularly in their striking as both rely heavily on boxing early in his UFC career career Jake Matthews utilized his black belt in Jiu-Jitsu more often but over time he realized he couldn't submit everyone especially against strong wrestlers who could neutralize his grappling as seen in his fight with Shawn Brady since then he has leaned more into his boxing evolving into a well-rounded MMA fighter Francisco Prado shares many of Matthew's attributes while not a black belt he has some grappling experience but like Jake prefers to keep the fight standing with that in mind this fight is likely to be a back and forth boxing match something this weak card desperately needs as for my prediction I'm taking Jake Matthews I see him as the bigger stronger and more polished version of pra who is making his welterweight debut while prao has fought at 170 lbs outside the UFC he hasn't faced high level competition at this weight which could be a major factor here I expect Matthews to use outside leg kicks to slow PR down mix in some grappling to disrupt his rhythm and stand his ground in the exchanges I also see him pushing prto back rather than letting him dictate the pace with that my final prediction is Jake Matthews via decision you might be asking yourself the same thing I did when this fight was announced why is this the main event sure it could be exciting and likely end in a finish but why would anyone pay to watch a semi-retired Jimmy Crute take on an unproven B on a ppv Dana White actually expects people to Shell out money for this and it's absurd now onto the fight itself I'm picking bedo to win and finish Jimmy Crute who seems un certain about his future in MMA bedo on the other hand is steadily building his name and fights like someone with something to prove meanwhile Jimmy Crute is coming off back-to-back losses getting finished in all but one of them that said Jimmy Crute recently gave an interview addressing these concerns making some valid points he revealed he had been plagued by inAnshul Jubliries for the past four to 5 years coinciding with most of his losses along with struggles with depression and fear in fights he claims to have overcome these issues so he might see a sharper more dangerous version of him this time still I'm sticking with bedo even Under Pressure he's willing to bite down mix things up and survive Jimmy Crute fits that mold too but after nearly 2 years out of action ring rust is a real Factor his timing cardio and durability could all be compromised bedo should capitalize on this even if Jimmy Crute has improved one advantage Jimmy Crute does have is his wrestling and we'll likely see him lean on it however if bedo forces him to work hard for takedowns Jimmy Crute's cardio may not hold up both men carry respectable power but if Jimmy Crute's chin is compromised bedo has the edge in Striking exchanges final prediction bedo by Colby ThicknesseO or decision Anshul Jublist like the last fight this matchup has no business being on a pay-per-view main card that said we're finally getting a heavyweight fight that's almost guaranteed to end in a brutal knockout exactly what fans want from this division my prediction will be as quick as the fight itself I'm picking talison tesera to stop Justin Tafatin Tafa in the first round his height the likely shorter than the UFC listed 6' 7 in will play a huge role while tafa has serious power he's a natural brawler who tries to be more technical at this level but once the bombs start flying he reverts to his instincts tesa's aggressive approach will bring that out of him early I see tesera using his reach to keep Justin Tafa at range while forcing wild exchanges Justin Tafa will swing for the fences and I expect tesera to catch him coming in likely with a fight ending head kick or strike in round one that said tafa has a real shot if can close the distance and capitalize on Tallison Teixeira's poor defense tesera gets hit too much in pursuit of his own offense and Justin Tafa could make him pay for it but ultimately I think tesa's ability to control range will be the difference against a shorter similarly aggressive opponent final prediction talison tesera by TColby ThicknesseO I've been looking forward to this fight for a while and I Anshul Jublist hope Tatiana Suarez comes in at 100% as inAnshul Jubliries have plagued her career without them I believe she'd already be a champion like Zhang Weili she's well-rounded Ed but lacks experience against top level competition that said the key difference here is that Zhang Weili will finally face someone with Superior wrestling and grappling Suarez an Olympic level wrestler who missed out on the games due to inAnshul Jubliry should have the edge in this department despite Way's improvements in Striking Zhang Weili has the advantage but Suarez's style fighting off the back foot and using her reach could give her problems we saw Zhang Weili struggle against Yan even getting dropped when rushing in so while Zhang Weili is the better Striker it it may not be as one-sided as many expect I'm picking the underdog Suarez to rise to the occasion and prove she's among the best if not the best straw weight in the world I see her controlling distance preventing Zhang Weili from overwhelming her with aggression and mixing in her grappling to keep Zhang Weili on the defensive cardio is a potential concern for Suarez in her first five round fight but her wrestling based endurance should hold up better than Zhang Weili who isn't used to being outg grappled we saw how fatigued Zhang Weili looked when Yan forced her to work in grappling exchanges and Suarez an even better Grappler can apply similar pressure while being the aggressor though I don't see Suarez getting a submission I predict she wins a close decision in a hard-fought grappling battle this is the second ppv of the Year featuring a rematch highlighting the UFC's current lack of fresh contenders at the top hopefully we avoid issues like Armen versus Islam where armen's withdrawal allegedly due to inAnshul Jubliry was later revealed as a weight cutting issue this card isn't strong enough to lose this fight so we Anshul Jublist have to hope both men make weight and stay healthy as for the fight I see it as a foregone conclusion given their Styles Dricus du Plessis thrives on aggression size and power aiming to break opponents down Sean Strickland despite his bravado is more of a counter Striker relying heavily on Jabs and teps with little grappling since Sean Strickland isn't adding new wrinkles to his game how does he deal with ddps pressure this time their first fight was close with many believing Sean Strickland did enough to retain I also felt Dricus du Plessis didn't do enough to clearly Dethrone him historically in razor thin decisions Champions often get the nod Sean Strickland's Trash Talk may have cost him more than his actual performance that said I don't see Sean Strickland having real answers for ddps aggression Sean Strickland appears focused on defensive wrestling not offense so I expect Dricus du Plessis to push the pace earlier he seemed frustrated after dropping the first round last time this time I think he'll show less respect engage more in inside exchanges and land the more damaging shots Sean Strickland's offensive weapons are limited and if drawn into a all he'll likely start swinging wildly while absorbing the heavier shots Dricus du Plessis might even forgo grappling early possibly using it in later rounds to manage his cardio while Sean Strickland may try to wear him down I don't think he can slow Dricus du Plessis enough to turn the tide prediction Dricus du Plessis by decision this time more convincingly EVENT_DETAILS”
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AT
Aleksandre Topuria
v Colby Thicknesse
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Aleksandre Topuria
v Colby Thicknesse
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“final prediction Alexandre tapua TColby ThicknesseO submission decision”
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WC
Wang Cong
v Bruna Brasil
PROP · DECISION
WON
Wang Cong
v Bruna Brasil
PROP · DECISION
WON
“final prediction Wang Cong Cong by decision or TColby ThicknesseO”
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Cong’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
VB
Viacheslav Borshchev
v Tom Nolan
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Viacheslav Borshchev
v Tom Nolan
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“my final pick Viacheslav Borshchev by TColby ThicknesseO inside the distance”
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TT
Tallison Teixeira
v Justin Tafa
PROP · SUBMISSION
LOST
Tallison Teixeira
v Justin Tafa
PROP · SUBMISSION
LOST
“final prediction Gabriel Santos by submission or TColby ThicknesseO”
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Teixeira’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JM
Jake Matthews
v Francisco Prado
PROP · DECISION
WON
Jake Matthews
v Francisco Prado
PROP · DECISION
WON
“my final prediction is Jake Matthews via decision”
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KS
Kody Steele
v Rong Zhu
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Kody Steele
v Rong Zhu
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“final prediction bedo by Colby ThicknesseO or decision”
Analyst’s stated line
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no market data captured for this fight
DP
Dricus du Plessis
v Sean Strickland
PROP · DECISION
WON
Dricus du Plessis
v Sean Strickland
PROP · DECISION
WON
“prediction Dricus du Plessis by decision this time more convincingly”
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TS
Tatiana Suarez
v Zhang Weili
PROP · DECISION
LOST
—
Tatiana Suarez
v Zhang Weili
PROP · DECISION
LOST
—
“I'm picking the underdog Suarez to win a close decision in a hard-fought grappling battle”
Analyst’s stated line
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no market data captured for this fight