UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
VH
Veronica Hardy
v Eduarda Moura
MONEYLINE
LOST
Veronica Hardy
v Eduarda Moura
MONEYLINE
LOST
“at the books Veronica Hardy is a small minus 150 favorite but the model sees her with a much larger Edge at minus 227”
Line since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.74
→
close$1.80
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
OE
Oban Elliott
v Bassil Hafez
MONEYLINE
WON
Oban Elliott
v Bassil Hafez
MONEYLINE
WON
“the bookmakers have Oban Elliott as a minus 220 favorite and the model is on the same side at minus 112”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.43
→
close$1.40
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
RB
Ramiz Brahimaj
v Mickey Gall
MONEYLINE
WON
Ramiz Brahimaj
v Mickey Gall
MONEYLINE
WON
“at the books Mickey Gall is a minus 135 favorite but the model is putting Ramiz Brahimaj Brahimaj at minus 118”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.25
→
close$2.25
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
MT
Marcin Tybura
v Jhonata Diniz
MONEYLINE
WON
Marcin Tybura
v Jhonata Diniz
MONEYLINE
WON
“our model has the odds a little wider showing Marcin Tybura at minus 162”
Line since pick
CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.73
→
close$1.75
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
MR
Maurício Ruffy
v James Llontop
MONEYLINE
WON
Maurício Ruffy
v James Llontop
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model sees it exactly the opposite in favor of Weidman”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.12
→
close$1.12
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
JJ
Jon Jones
v Stipe Miocic
MONEYLINE
WON
Jon Jones
v Stipe Miocic
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model thinks that Jon Jonesathan Jon Jonesathan Martinez can get it done”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.17
→
close$1.17
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
KS
Karine Silva
v Viviane Araújo
MONEYLINE
LOST
Karine Silva
v Viviane Araújo
MONEYLINE
LOST
“the model also sees her with a small minus 151 Edge”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.38
→
close$1.38
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
BN
Bo Nickal
v Paul Craig
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Bo Nickal
v Paul Craig
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“I think that the threat of the takedown will be more than enough for Bo Nickal Bo Nickal Nickal to get a TKO Victory”
Moneyline since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.10
→
close$1.08
Nickal’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
CO
Charles Oliveira
v Michael Chandler
MONEYLINE
WON
Charles Oliveira
v Michael Chandler
MONEYLINE
WON
“the model sees it closer but still favors Charles Oliveira at minus 125”
Line since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.40
→
close$1.44
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
DJ
Damon Jackson
v Jim Miller
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Damon Jackson
v Jim Miller
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“at the books Damon Jackson Jackson is a small minus 150 favorite and the model is right in line with that at minus 136”
Line since pick
CLV +9%
◆ entry$1.77
→
close$1.62
entry: Fliff · best in any region at publish