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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Muhammad v Thompson Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus4 picks · conf 10/99
Muhammad 2
2 Thompson
UW pick Muhammad
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Muhammad 24-5 VS 17-8-1 Thompson
5'11" height 6'0"
171 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 75"
37 age 43
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 4.1
47% striking accuracy 46%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
59% striking defence 55%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
46% takedown accuracy 41%
77% takedown defence 63%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i am on Stephen Thompson Stephen Thompson win thinking unanimous decision” $1.50
KU Kunath picks Stephen Thompson “i expect Stephen Thompson to win”
WP We Want Picks picks Belal Muhammad “i got Belal Muhammad here i got the the plus 200 one unit moneyline bat” $3.00
WP We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson “i think this is a boring boring boring decision win for stephen Stephen Thompson”
WP We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson “I think rockelle is able to the Crowd pressure and walk away Stephen Thompson win”
WP We Want Picks picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “Belal Muhammad should blow through him” $72.00
KU Kunath picks Stephen Thompson “if wonder boy wins the pick is wonder boy”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “i'm gonna side with bala Belal Muhammad” $3.00
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i think Stephen Thompson gets the w but it's a hard road ahead” $1.42
Recent form last five, most recent first
Muhammad24-5
L Bonfim Decision · R5 Jun '26
L Garry Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Maddalena Decision · R5 May '25
W Edwards Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Burns Decision · R5 May '23
Thompson17-8-1
L Bonfim Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Buckley KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
L Rakhmonov Submission · R2 Dec '23
W Holland KO/TKO · R4 Dec '22
L Muhammad Decision · R3 Dec '21