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Lewis vs DaukausMain Card · Heavyweight
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Muhammad vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
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Lemos vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Meerschaert vs StoltzfusPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Mayes vs ParisianPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Leavitt vs SaylesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CD
Lewis vs DaukausMain Card · Heavyweight
BM
ST
Muhammad vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
AL
AH
Lemos vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
RS
RA
Simón vs AssunçãoMain Card · Bantamweight
MG
CF
Gamrot vs FerreiraMain Card · Lightweight
CS
DE
Swanson vs ElkinsMain Card · Featherweight
GM
DS
Meerschaert vs StoltzfusPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JT
HH
Tafa vs HunsuckerPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MG
SE
Gatto vs EubanksPreliminary Card · Catchweight
CJ
AE
Jourdain vs EwellPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RP
MC
Pennington vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DM
JP
Mayes vs ParisianPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JL
MS
Leavitt vs SaylesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Muhammad v Thompson
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Muhammad 24-5
VS
17-8-1 Thompson
5'11"
height
6'0"
171 lb
weight
170 lb
72"
reach
75"
37
age
43
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.5
strikes landed / min
4.1
47%
striking accuracy
46%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
59%
striking defence
55%
4.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
46%
takedown accuracy
41%
77%
takedown defence
63%
0.5
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“i am on Stephen Thompson Stephen Thompson win thinking unanimous decision”
$1.50
KU
Kunath picks Stephen Thompson
“i expect Stephen Thompson to win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Belal Muhammad
“i got Belal Muhammad here i got the the plus 200 one unit moneyline bat”
$3.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson
“i think this is a boring boring boring decision win for stephen Stephen Thompson”
WP
We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson
“I think rockelle is able to the Crowd pressure and walk away Stephen Thompson win”
KU
Kunath picks Stephen Thompson
“if wonder boy wins the pick is wonder boy”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“i think Stephen Thompson gets the w but it's a hard road ahead”
$1.42
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Muhammad24-5
L
Bonfim
Jun '26
L
Garry
Nov '25
L
Maddalena
May '25
W
Edwards
Jul '24
W
Burns
May '23
Thompson17-8-1
L
Bonfim
Jul '25
L
Buckley
Oct '24
L
Rakhmonov
Dec '23
W
Holland
Dec '22
L
Muhammad
Dec '21