Choose a fight to analyse
DL
CD
Lewis vs DaukausMain Card · Heavyweight
BM
ST
Muhammad vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
AL
AH
Lemos vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
RS
RA
Simón vs AssunçãoMain Card · Bantamweight
MG
CF
Gamrot vs FerreiraMain Card · Lightweight
CS
DE
Swanson vs ElkinsMain Card · Featherweight
GM
DS
Meerschaert vs StoltzfusPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JT
HH
Tafa vs HunsuckerPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MG
SE
Gatto vs EubanksPreliminary Card · Catchweight
CJ
AE
Jourdain vs EwellPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RP
MC
Pennington vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DM
JP
Mayes vs ParisianPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JL
MS
Leavitt vs SaylesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CD
Lewis vs DaukausMain Card · Heavyweight
BM
ST
Muhammad vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
AL
AH
Lemos vs HillMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
RS
RA
Simón vs AssunçãoMain Card · Bantamweight
MG
CF
Gamrot vs FerreiraMain Card · Lightweight
CS
DE
Swanson vs ElkinsMain Card · Featherweight
GM
DS
Meerschaert vs StoltzfusPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JT
HH
Tafa vs HunsuckerPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MG
SE
Gatto vs EubanksPreliminary Card · Catchweight
CJ
AE
Jourdain vs EwellPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RP
MC
Pennington vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DM
JP
Mayes vs ParisianPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JL
MS
Leavitt vs SaylesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Simón v Assunção
Bantamweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Simón 20-6
VS
28-10 Assunção
—
height
—
—
weight
—
—
reach
—
33
age
43
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.0
strikes landed / min
3.2
43%
striking accuracy
42%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
2.5
61%
striking defence
66%
5.2
takedowns / 15 min
1.6
44%
takedown accuracy
39%
75%
takedown defence
78%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“Ricky Simón at 9200 this guy is draftking's gold on paper uh Raphael Assunção has a very good takedown defense sitting at 80 percent but um when you look more into it he doesn't fight a ton of guys that are going to want to try to take him down especially as of late ricky simone's takedown numbers are phenomenal lands 6.93 takedowns for 15 minutes with a 54 takedown accuracy so he's attempting a ton of takedowns and he's getting them at over a 50 clip very impressive i think he mixes and take down sierra in a lot of them and he puts up a pretty solid score in a win”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“Ricky Simón at 9200 this guy is draftking's gold on paper uh Raphael Assunção has a very good takedown defense sitting at 80 percent but um when you look more into it he doesn't fight a ton of guys that are going to want to try to take him down especially as of late ricky simone's takedown numbers are phenomenal lands 6.93 takedowns for 15 minutes with a 54 takedown accuracy so he's attempting a ton of takedowns and he's getting them at over a 50 clip very impressive i think he mixes and take down sierra in a lot of them and he puts up a pretty solid score in a win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Ricky Simón
“so ricky's the pick because i i think he does get some takedowns and i know i can count on his cardio and his effort but this line this bedding line is straight up disrespectful”
$1.37
We Want Picks picks Ricky Simón
“so ricky's the pick because i i think he does get some takedowns and i know i can count on his cardio and his effort but this line this bedding line is straight up disrespectful”
$1.37
WP
We Want Picks picks Ricky Simón
“do i think he will no [referring to Raphael Assunção winning]”
$93.00
We Want Picks picks Ricky Simón
“do i think he will no [referring to Raphael Assunção winning]”
$93.00
KU
Kunath picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“pick for me is Ricky Simón”
Kunath picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“pick for me is Ricky Simón”
GP
Greedo Plays picks Ricky Simón
“i'm going downtown maze... i'll say dantel maze beats him by decision”
$1.51
Greedo Plays picks Ricky Simón
“i'm going downtown maze... i'll say dantel maze beats him by decision”
$1.51
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“i'm gonna take Ricky Simón to potentially ragdoll Raphael Assunção”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“i'm gonna take Ricky Simón to potentially ragdoll Raphael Assunção”
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Ricky Simón
“i'm going to go over Ricky Simón winning this over Raphael Assunção”
THE MMA GURU picks Ricky Simón
“i'm going to go over Ricky Simón winning this over Raphael Assunção”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“i think ryan barsalos should go out there and put a good display on henry”
$1.36
MMA EXPERTS picks Ricky Simón VALUE
“i think ryan barsalos should go out there and put a good display on henry”
$1.36
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Simón20-6
L
Barcelos
Nov '25
W
Smotherman
Jun '25
W
Basharat
Feb '25
L
Oliveira
Jun '24
L
Bautista
Jan '24
Assunção28-10
L
Grant
Mar '23
W
Henry
Oct '22
L
Simón
Dec '21
L
Garbrandt
Jun '20
L
Sandhagen
Aug '19