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UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moisés
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Makhachev v Moisés Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus5 picks · conf 15/99
Makhachev 5
0 Moisés
TMUDM pick Makhachev
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Makhachev 27-1 VS 19-9 Moisés
5'10" height 5'9"
170 lb weight 155 lb
70" reach 70"
34 age 31
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.4 strikes landed / min 2.4
49% striking accuracy 40%
1.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
66% striking defence 54%
3.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
49% takedown accuracy 35%
90% takedown defence 55%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “guru will make go in all five rounds yes he will i don't think he finishes Thiago Moisés if he does it'll be in the fourth or fifth um but i think he will go five rounds”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “the winner according to the simulation islam Islam Makhachev”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “i do think islamically is going to get a win but it's not going to be easy but i think he's going to get it done to be honest so yeah we'll have Islam Makhachev like a chip to get the dog possibly no distance in that fight as well but i'll just take as long for those of you that have made it to the end of the video”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Islam Makhachev “i'm going with islam makashiv”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “Islam Makhachev is definitely the lock pick of the night” $1.17
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “i like Islam Makhachev i'm going to have him in the majority of my lineups and this 9k range is really stacked but it's really hard to not go very heavy on maka jeff in this fight i think he scores very good” $95.00
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Islam Makhachev “i'll take Islam Makhachev to potentially ground and pound thiago moises” $1.17
Recent form last five, most recent first
Makhachev27-1
W Maddalena Decision · R5 Nov '25
W Moicano Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Poirier Submission · R5 Jun '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R1 Oct '23
W Volkanovski Decision · R5 Feb '23
Moisés19-9
L Young Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 May '25
W Ogden Decision · R3 Jan '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Ramirez KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24