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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Dariush v Ferguson
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
T
pick Dariush
pick Dariush
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Dariush 23-7-1
VS
26-11 Ferguson
5'10"
height
5'11"
157 lb
weight
170 lb
72"
reach
76"
37
age
42
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.8
strikes landed / min
4.9
48%
striking accuracy
45%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
57%
striking defence
55%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
34%
takedown accuracy
35%
80%
takedown defence
66%
0.9
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Beneil Dariush
“i think the bell is going to save dariush in a third round 10-9 daryush first 10-9 darius second 10-9 ferguson third”
THE MMA GURU picks Beneil Dariush
“i think the bell is going to save dariush in a third round 10-9 daryush first 10-9 darius second 10-9 ferguson third”
CS
Calf Kick Sports picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
Calf Kick Sports picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Beneil Dariush VALUE
“i think that Beneil Dariush should win it”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Beneil Dariush VALUE
“i think that Beneil Dariush should win it”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tony Ferguson
“i'll definitely have some shares that is going to be the coming event i think it's going to be extremely high owned as far as Beneil Dariush side”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tony Ferguson
“i'll definitely have some shares that is going to be the coming event i think it's going to be extremely high owned as far as Beneil Dariush side”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“my pick's gonna be tony Tony Ferguson man i'm not ready to say that tony is done i'll take a tony stoppage in round three or a decision”
$1.62
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“my pick's gonna be tony Tony Ferguson man i'm not ready to say that tony is done i'll take a tony stoppage in round three or a decision”
$1.62
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“Tony Ferguson is going to come and really try and push the pace in this one and try and prove a point hold his position in the division”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“Tony Ferguson is going to come and really try and push the pace in this one and try and prove a point hold his position in the division”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i'm going to pick him i'm going to pick my boy elka cooy here i think that he's super motivated all these ufc fighters that brush shoulders with him all talk about this guy is on another level with his work ethic and his game his cardio the conditioning that he puts in the training that he puts in i think he's extremely motivated and i think that at 37 for him it might be the equivalent of a 33 for a lot of other guys this guy's built from a different cloth so i think that he's still he's still right there the two guys he lost to or two of the top guys in the division Charles Oliveira potentially the the lightweight champion here within a few days um so i like tony here i think that tony can get this fight done”
Walk The Line MMA picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i'm going to pick him i'm going to pick my boy elka cooy here i think that he's super motivated all these ufc fighters that brush shoulders with him all talk about this guy is on another level with his work ethic and his game his cardio the conditioning that he puts in the training that he puts in i think he's extremely motivated and i think that at 37 for him it might be the equivalent of a 33 for a lot of other guys this guy's built from a different cloth so i think that he's still he's still right there the two guys he lost to or two of the top guys in the division Charles Oliveira potentially the the lightweight champion here within a few days um so i like tony here i think that tony can get this fight done”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i think ferguson is good enough to beat him”
MMA EXPERTS picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i think ferguson is good enough to beat him”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Dariush23-7-1
L
Salkilld
May '26
L
Denis
Nov '25
W
Moicano
Jun '25
L
Tsarukyan
Dec '23
L
Oliveira
Jun '23
Ferguson26-11
L
Chiesa
Aug '24
L
Pimblett
Dec '23
L
Green
Jul '23
L
Diaz
Sep '22
L
Chandler
May '22