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Dariush vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
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Chookagian vs AraújoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Barboza vs BurgosMain Card · Featherweight
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Muniz vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Vannata vs GrundyPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Wright vs PickettPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Lee vs ShevchenkoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Cachoeira vs MazanyEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Lutz vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Lutz v Aguilar
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Lutz 12-4
VS
17-5 Aguilar
5'8"
height
5'7"
146 lb
weight
145 lb
72"
reach
73"
31
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.7
strikes landed / min
4.0
46%
striking accuracy
40%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
4.8
44%
striking defence
52%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
44%
takedown accuracy
16%
69%
takedown defence
78%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Tucker Lutz
“we're going with Tucker Lutz here and i think it's going to be a very very close decision”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“i have Tucker Lutz winning this fight i think he wins this fight by a unanimous decision”
$1.90
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“i think that lutz is going to win this fight um i think that lutz uh will just be a little bit more crisp in there i think he'll be a little bit more uh more polished up right now at 26 years old i think that he his confidence is high i just liked what i've seen from him as a recently a little bit more than kevin kevin does leave himself out there at times”
GP
Greedo Plays picks Tucker Lutz
“i'm going Tucker Lutz”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“i think Tucker Lutz i think though unanimous decision tucker loots that's gonna be my pick”
$1.80
WI
WEIGHING IN picks Kevin Aguilar VALUE
“Kevin Aguilar he beat you know so he's got some good wins Kevin Aguilar”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Lutz12-4
L
Baghdasaryan
Jul '23
L
Pineda
Mar '23
L
Sabatini
Nov '21
W
Aguilar
May '21
Aguilar17-5
L
Lutz
May '21
L
Rosa
Jun '20
L
Tukhugov
Feb '20
L
Ige
Jun '19
W
Barzola
Mar '19