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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Lutz v Aguilar Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Lutz 5
1 Aguilar
TMGUW pick Lutz
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lutz 12-4 VS 17-5 Aguilar
5'8" height 5'7"
146 lb weight 145 lb
72" reach 73"
31 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.7 strikes landed / min 4.0
46% striking accuracy 40%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.8
44% striking defence 52%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
44% takedown accuracy 16%
69% takedown defence 78%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Tucker Lutz “we're going with Tucker Lutz here and i think it's going to be a very very close decision”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE “i have Tucker Lutz winning this fight i think he wins this fight by a unanimous decision” $1.90
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tucker Lutz VALUE “i'll take Tucker Lutz via decision” $1.77
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Tucker Lutz VALUE “i think that lutz is going to win this fight um i think that lutz uh will just be a little bit more crisp in there i think he'll be a little bit more uh more polished up right now at 26 years old i think that he his confidence is high i just liked what i've seen from him as a recently a little bit more than kevin kevin does leave himself out there at times”
GP Greedo Plays picks Tucker Lutz “i'm going Tucker Lutz”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE “i think Tucker Lutz i think though unanimous decision tucker loots that's gonna be my pick” $1.80
WI WEIGHING IN picks Kevin Aguilar VALUE “Kevin Aguilar he beat you know so he's got some good wins Kevin Aguilar”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lutz12-4
L Baghdasaryan Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Pineda Submission · R2 Mar '23
L Sabatini Decision · R3 Nov '21
W Aguilar Decision · R3 May '21
Aguilar17-5
L Lutz Decision · R3 May '21
L Rosa Decision · R3 Jun '20
L Tukhugov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '20
L Ige Decision · R3 Jun '19
W Barzola Decision · R3 Mar '19