Choose a fight to analyse
IT
CO
Topuria vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
AP
KK
Pantoja vs Kara-FranceMain Card · Flyweight
BD
RM
Dariush vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight
JH
GR
Hermansson vs RodriguesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
VA
TC
Araújo vs CortezPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BR
JV
Royval vs VanMain Card · Flyweight
PT
FL
Talbott vs LimaMain Card · Bantamweight
HA
JD
Amil vs DelgadoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
TM
VB
McKinney vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JD
AH
Diniz vs HinesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
NP
JS
Price vs SmithPreliminary Card · Welterweight
CO
Topuria vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
AP
KK
Pantoja vs Kara-FranceMain Card · Flyweight
BD
RM
Dariush vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight
JH
GR
Hermansson vs RodriguesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
VA
TC
Araújo vs CortezPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BR
JV
Royval vs VanMain Card · Flyweight
PT
FL
Talbott vs LimaMain Card · Bantamweight
HA
JD
Amil vs DelgadoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
TM
VB
McKinney vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JD
AH
Diniz vs HinesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
NP
JS
Price vs SmithPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Oliveira
over Topuria · Lightweight
Our fair value$3.66
pays above fair
$4.40
Best prices · Oliveira
FanDuel · US
$4.40
Grosvenor · UK
$4.25
Pinnacle · EU
$4.40
SportsBet · AU
$4.35
Where to back Oliveira
best price · region · EV vs fair $3.66
US
FanDuel
$4.40
+20%
FanDuel
$4.40
+20%
UK
Grosvenor
$4.25
+16%
Grosvenor
$4.25
+16%
EU
Pinnacle
$4.40
+20%
Pinnacle
$4.40
+20%
AU
SportsBet
$4.35
+19%
SportsBet
$4.35
+19%
How it endsmethod calls · Oliveira · crowd line
KO/TKO
16
$10.53
Submission
26
$6.48
Decision
2
$84.25
None
2
$84.25
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Topuria 17-0
VS
36-11 Oliveira
5'7"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
69"
reach
74"
29
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.5
strikes landed / min
3.7
54%
striking accuracy
48%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
61%
striking defence
53%
2.3
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
57%
takedown accuracy
44%
84%
takedown defence
57%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
2.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market27% vs 23%
Consensus85 of 224 analysts
Sharpest angleOliveira by Submission — 26 of 46 method calls
Recommendation
Back Oliveira @ $4.40 · fair $3.66
+20% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TP
The Darce Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“I'm going to take him in round one and round two.”
The Darce Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“I'm going to take him in round one and round two.”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Ilia Topuria
“I'm gonna go with Ilia Topuria”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Ilia Topuria
“I'm gonna go with Ilia Topuria”
MD
mdminds picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I'm a huge Charles fan. I really like Ilia Topuria as well.”
mdminds picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I'm a huge Charles fan. I really like Ilia Topuria as well.”
TH
ThaGamingDojo picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“I'm picking Charles Oliveira Oliver.”
ThaGamingDojo picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“I'm picking Charles Oliveira Oliver.”
TG
Tristar Gym picks Ilia Topuria
“And I'm going 8020 pick Ilia Topuria. Now, I'm not giving 8020 to Ilia Topuria. I think it's more like 7030 for Ilia Topuria. If I had to say 7030, I easy for Ilia Topuria. Ilia Topuria is going to have submission.”
Tristar Gym picks Ilia Topuria
“And I'm going 8020 pick Ilia Topuria. Now, I'm not giving 8020 to Ilia Topuria. I think it's more like 7030 for Ilia Topuria. If I had to say 7030, I easy for Ilia Topuria. Ilia Topuria is going to have submission.”
FI
FightCircuit picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I can see Taporia hitting like slipping a jab from Charles Oliveira Alber over hand and just dropping him to the floor, following him down with hammer fists and finish him from side back position”
FightCircuit picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I can see Taporia hitting like slipping a jab from Charles Oliveira Alber over hand and just dropping him to the floor, following him down with hammer fists and finish him from side back position”
BS
B ALL N Sports picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I think he is going to knock Charles out”
B ALL N Sports picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I think he is going to knock Charles out”
BT
BetMGM Tonight picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“One of those nuclear bombs lands and it's a wrap.”
BetMGM Tonight picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“One of those nuclear bombs lands and it's a wrap.”
TA
TakeDownTalks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I don't think Aloa will take down Tapora. ... Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout. That is it for me guys.”
TakeDownTalks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I don't think Aloa will take down Tapora. ... Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout. That is it for me guys.”
DG
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Ilia Topuria
“For those of you that want to know my pick to win, obviously it's going to be Top Urier.”
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Ilia Topuria
“For those of you that want to know my pick to win, obviously it's going to be Top Urier.”
TS
The Mike Finch Show picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I'm going Tapora.”
The Mike Finch Show picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“I'm going Tapora.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Topuria17-0
L
Gaethje
Jun '26
W
Oliveira
Jun '25
W
Holloway
Oct '24
W
Volkanovski
Feb '24
W
Emmett
Jun '23
Oliveira36-11
W
Holloway
Mar '26
W
Gamrot
Oct '25
L
Topuria
Jun '25
W
Chandler
Nov '24
L
Tsarukyan
Apr '24