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UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
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IT CO Topuria vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight AP KK Pantoja vs Kara-FranceMain Card · Flyweight BD RM Dariush vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight JH GR Hermansson vs RodriguesPreliminary Card · Middleweight VA TC Araújo vs CortezPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BR JV Royval vs VanMain Card · Flyweight PT FL Talbott vs LimaMain Card · Bantamweight HA JD Amil vs DelgadoPreliminary Card · Featherweight TM VB McKinney vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight JD AH Diniz vs HinesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight NP JS Price vs SmithPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Price over Smith · Welterweight Our fair value$7.64 Betsson pays above fair $13.00
Where to back Price best price · region · EV vs fair $7.64
US Caesars $13.00 +70%
UK Grosvenor $11.00 +44%
EU Betsson $13.00 +70%
AU Ladbrokes AU $12.50 +64%
Consensus70 picks · conf 76/99
Price 17
53 Smith
DPFTST pick Price
How it endsmethod calls · Price · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $9.16
Submission 1 $45.82
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Price 16-10 VS 11-0 Smith
6'0" height 6'2"
171 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 72"
36 age 30
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.2 strikes landed / min 7.0
42% striking accuracy 76%
5.6 strikes absorbed / min 1.4
48% striking defence 54%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 13.3
29% takedown accuracy 87%
52% takedown defence 0%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market13% vs 8%
Consensus17 of 70 analysts
Sharpest anglePrice by KO/TKO — 5 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Price @ $13.00 · fair $7.64 +70% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MR Milo Reyes picks Niko Price VALUE “I'm picking Jacobe to be Neo Price”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Niko Price VALUE “Jacobe Smith at on DraftKings taking on Niko Price at 25500 for Jacobe Smith” $256.00
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “the pick is Jacobe Smith” $13.00
BS B ALL N Sports picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “I say he gets it done by second round knockout.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “Jacobe Smith to get a knockout”
TA TakeDownTalks picks Niko Price VALUE “Give me Philip Niko Price by decision or submission.”
TA TakeDownTalks picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “I will keep this short and sweet, guys. Jacobe Smith is minus - 2,500. He's the better wrestler, better athlete. He has more power on the feet. He should get Niko Price out of there inside two rounds. Give me Jacobe Smith. by knockout.”
SO Stout & Out picks Jacobe Smith “Jacobe Smith is definitely Jacobe Smith.”
TS The Mike Finch Show picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “Jacobe Smith over Nico Price.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Niko Price “This is a horrible match up for Niko Price.” $26.00
⚔P ⚔️Soups MMA Preview⚔️ picks Jacobe Smith VALUE “He's going to take out Niko Price via first round TKO”
AB Ashkon Bets picks Jacobe Smith “Jacobe Smith is going to knock this guy out.” $1.05
Recent form last five, most recent first
Price16-10
L Chiesa Submission · R1 Mar '26
L Veretennikov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
L Smith Submission · R2 Jun '25
L Gorimbo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Morono Decision · R3 Jun '24
Smith11-0
W Harrell KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Price Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Parsons KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25