MMA Prophecy
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UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
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IT CO Topuria vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight AP KK Pantoja vs Kara-FranceMain Card · Flyweight BD RM Dariush vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight JH GR Hermansson vs RodriguesPreliminary Card · Middleweight VA TC Araújo vs CortezPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BR JV Royval vs VanMain Card · Flyweight PT FL Talbott vs LimaMain Card · Bantamweight HA JD Amil vs DelgadoPreliminary Card · Featherweight TM VB McKinney vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight JD AH Diniz vs HinesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight NP JS Price vs SmithPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Moicano v Dariush Lightweight Our fair value $1.95 best price $1.94 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Moicano best price · region · EV vs fair $1.95
US BetRivers $1.93 -1%
UK Virgin Bet $1.94 -0%
EU Unibet (NL) $1.93 -1%
AU Unibet $1.94 -0%
Consensus157 picks · conf 99/99
Dariush 75
82 Moicano
PTMLDR pick Dariush
How it endsmethod calls · Moicano · crowd line
KO/TKO 18 $4.33
Submission 1 $77.97
Decision 18 $4.33
None 3 $25.99
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dariush 23-7-1 VS 20-7-1 Moicano
5'10" height 5'11"
157 lb weight 155 lb
72" reach 72"
37 age 37
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.8 strikes landed / min 4.4
48% striking accuracy 49%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
57% striking defence 60%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
34% takedown accuracy 44%
80% takedown defence 72%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market51% vs 52%
Consensus82 of 157 analysts
Sharpest angleMoicano by KO/TKO — 18 of 40 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Beneil Dariush “I'm taking Beneil Dariush.”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Renato Moicano VALUE “I am gonna pick Renato Moicano”
12 12Coffees picks Beneil Dariush “La sorpresa total de la noche. Beneil Dariush le va a ganar a Renato Muicano.”
MD mdminds picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “Benil getting it done. That's another fight. These first two fights, they're so up in the air that I'm not even touching them on a betting sense. If I were to just say one guy or the other, I'm going to take Benil. Um, I like the odds in that one. He is the underdog, but he's still a minus 104.” $1.96
BS B ALL N Sports picks Beneil Dariush VALUE
TA TakeDownTalks picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “Give me Ben Beneil Dariush by decision.”
SO Stout & Out picks Beneil Dariush “I'm taking Beneil Dariush”
TS The Mike Finch Show picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “I'm going with Hanato moneyo.”
RX RX picks Renato Moicano “Give me Renato Moicano by decision.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “Combined best bet this week on Beneil Dariush best bet.” $1.95
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Renato Moicano “I think Darius is just likelier to get on top and hold position.” $2.05
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Beneil Dariush VALUE “give me Beneil Dariush in that fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dariush23-7-1
L Salkilld KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Moicano Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Tsarukyan KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
L Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '23
Moicano20-7-1
W Duncan Submission · R2 Apr '26
L Dariush Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Makhachev Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Denis KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Turner KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24