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UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley
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BEST PRICE We back Garbrandt over Barcelos · Bantamweight Our fair value$2.47 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $3.25
Where to back Garbrandt best price · region · EV vs fair $2.47
US BetOnline.ag $3.25 +32%
UK Unibet (UK) $3.10 +26%
EU Pinnacle $3.22 +30%
AU PointsBet (AU) $3.10 +26%
Consensus165 picks · conf 99/99
Garbrandt 89
76 Barcelos
TTP9SL pick Garbrandt
How it endsmethod calls · Garbrandt · crowd line
KO/TKO 43 $4.02
Submission 1 $172.97
Decision 24 $7.21
None 2 $86.49
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Garbrandt 0-0 VS 21-5 Barcelos
5'8" height 5'7"
136 lb weight 136 lb
65" reach 67"
34 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 5.2
40% striking accuracy 51%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.8
60% striking defence 61%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
34% takedown accuracy 32%
80% takedown defence 85%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market40% vs 31%
Consensus89 of 165 analysts
Sharpest angleGarbrandt by KO/TKO — 43 of 70 method calls
Recommendation Back Garbrandt @ $3.25 · fair $2.47 +32% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Cody Garbrandt “I don't think it'll be a finish. I think it'll probably go to decision”
KP Kick Em In The Head MMA Podcast picks Raoni Barcelos “give me Raoni Barcelos” $1.46
TD The Rambling Dad picks Raoni Barcelos “I've been a big fan of Raoni Barcelos for so long” $1.46
AP Axe Kick Picks picks Cody Garbrandt VALUE “I'm willing to take him at a dark price here at plus 165” $2.65
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Cody Garbrandt VALUE “take Cody Garbrandt over Raoni Barcelos.” $3.10
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “Aqui a vitória simples do Raoni Barcelos pagando 1,55.”
US Uselyis picks Cody Garbrandt “The pick is going to be Raoni Barcelos, but considering Cody Garbrandt's potential.” $2.80
GI GipperPicks picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “I'm going to be leaning towards Marcelos in this fight.”
OC Octogone-Vision picks Cody Garbrandt “Cody Garbrandt, l'ancien champion Bantam pourra-t-il se défaire de son adversaire ? Il sera confronté au vétéran le brésilien Raoni Barcelos.”
XL xLimOnC picks Raoni Barcelos “Creo que Raoni Barcelos va a ser muy fuerte para Cody Garbrandt y que por este motivo va a ganar”
MM MMAnomaly picks Raoni Barcelos “Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos”
MM MMAnomaly picks Cody Garbrandt “Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Garbrandt0-0
W Long Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Barcelos Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Figueiredo Submission · R2 Apr '24
W Kelleher KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
W Jones Decision · R3 Mar '23
Barcelos21-5
W Jackson Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Simón Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Garbrandt Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Talbott Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Quiñonez Submission · R3 Feb '24