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UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley
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KU JB Usman vs BuckleyFight Card · Welterweight RN MM Namajunas vs MaverickFight Card · Women'S Flyweight MC CM Chiesa vs McGeePreliminary Card · Welterweight MA CB Abdul-Malik vs BrundageFight Card · Middleweight ES AP Shahbazyan vs PetroskiFight Card · Middleweight CD JO Durden vs OchoaPreliminary Card · Flyweight AM OS Menifield vs SyFight Card · Light Heavyweight CG RB Garbrandt vs BarcelosFight Card · Bantamweight PC RB Craig vs BellatoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight JH VD Horth vs DemopoulosPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MW KM Wellmaker vs MoutinhoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight RS CS Simón vs SmothermanPreliminary Card · Bantamweight PR AL Rowe vs LoosaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Moutinho over Wellmaker · Bantamweight Our fair value$10.30 Pinnacle pays above fair $11.37
Where to back Moutinho best price · region · EV vs fair $10.30
US Caesars $11.00 +7%
UK Virgin Bet $10.50 +2%
EU Pinnacle $11.37 +10%
AU Neds $11.00 +7%
Consensus99 picks · conf 84/99
Wellmaker 87
12 Moutinho
IPSCMR pick Wellmaker
How it endsmethod calls · Moutinho · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $18.87
Decision 2 $56.62
None 3 $37.75
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Wellmaker 10-1 VS 14-7 Moutinho
5'10" height 5'7"
144 lb weight 136 lb
71" reach 68"
32 age 33
Switch stance Southpaw
8.1 strikes landed / min 4.9
66% striking accuracy 32%
7.7 strikes absorbed / min 15.5
54% striking defence 28%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
0% takedown accuracy 0%
100% takedown defence 0%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market10% vs 9%
Consensus12 of 99 analysts
Sharpest angleMoutinho by KO/TKO — 6 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Back Moutinho @ $11.37 · fair $10.30 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Malcolm Wellmaker “I think Malcolm Wellmaker is going to get this done.”
KP Kick Em In The Head MMA Podcast picks Malcolm Wellmaker “give me Jam Lyn Hort” $1.16
TD The Rambling Dad picks Malcolm Wellmaker “give me Malcolm Malcolm Wellmaker” $1.48
AP Axe Kick Picks picks Kris Moutinho VALUE “I'm taking Kris Moutinho” $13.00
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Kris Moutinho VALUE “I am going to stay take a stab at Chris Kris Moutinho on the side.” $11.00
MM MMAnomaly picks Kris Moutinho “I think Malcolm Wallmaker can land probably at least 24 25 even.” $1.05
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Malcolm Wellmaker “give me Malcolm Wellmaker”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Malcolm Wellmaker “the hometown kid in Malcolm Malcolm Wellmaker”
⚔P ⚔️Soups MMA Preview⚔️ picks Kris Moutinho VALUE “NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 Kris Moutinho is going to shock submission against Court McGee.”
FF Fights & Frags picks Malcolm Wellmaker “Malcolm Wellmaker quit being a plumber, quit his job because you get the $50,000 bonus. So, let's see what he can do in the UFC.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Malcolm Wellmaker VALUE “sitting at minus 25500. Um, yeah, really nothing really much to talk about. Malcolm Wellmaker. Um, he's going to be too much for Chris. Um, I I can never say his last name. Mot. Kris Moutinhoinho.” $1.04
SB SouthernTea Boxing-MMA & Sports Betting picks Kris Moutinho “Malcolm Whale Maker is gonna knock him out.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Wellmaker10-1
L Díaz Submission · R2 May '26
L Ewing Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Moutinho KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Saaiman KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
Moutinho14-7
L Quiñónez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Quiñonez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Wellmaker KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
L Cannetti KO/TKO · R1 Mar '22
L O'Malley KO/TKO · R3 Jul '21