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UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley
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BEST PRICE We back Craig over Bellato · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$3.40 BoomBet pays above fair $4.00
Where to back Craig best price · region · EV vs fair $3.40
US betPARX $4.00 +18%
UK Grosvenor $4.00 +18%
EU Betsson $4.00 +18%
AU BoomBet $4.00 +18%
Consensus99 picks · conf 84/99
Craig 38
61 Bellato
WLMFF1 pick Craig
How it endsmethod calls · Craig · crowd line
KO/TKO 13 $8.64
Submission 20 $5.61
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Craig 17-10-1 VS 13-3-1 Bellato
6'3" height 6'3"
205 lb weight 204 lb
76" reach 75"
38 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.4
48% striking accuracy 36%
4.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
52% striking defence 50%
0.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
60% takedown accuracy 30%
80% takedown defence 80%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market29% vs 25%
Consensus38 of 99 analysts
Sharpest angleCraig by Submission — 20 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Craig @ $4.00 · fair $3.40 +18% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Rodolfo Bellato “I think Rodolfo Bellato is going to get it done.”
KP Kick Em In The Head MMA Podcast picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm going with Rodolfo Bellato as well” $1.24
TD The Rambling Dad picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm going to go with Rodolfo Bellato” $1.24
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm taking Rodolfo Bellato as well.” $1.24
TA TakeDownTalks picks Paul Craig VALUE “Paul Craig to pull off a submission.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Rodolfo Bellato VALUE “vitória do Rodolfo Bellato sobre o Paul Craig. ... Eu acho que o Belato vende essa luta pagando 1,26.”
BE BetSam picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm going to go Rulo Bolato here.”
GI GipperPicks picks Paul Craig VALUE “And I'm going with Batto.” $1.25
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Rodolfo Bellato “I'm taking Rodolfo Bellato”
LI LiamthemaestroMMA picks Paul Craig “I think he's going to win this.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Paul Craig “I'm going with Deran here”
JJ JP Bet Journal picks Paul Craig VALUE “I got the Paul Craig money line. If you watch my other video, you know I'm just not sold on Rodolfo Bellato. He's easy to hit. He's almost been finished in both his last two fights and Paul Craig has beat some big names. I know he hasn't done that great lately, but I think Paul Craig can potentially get a W.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Craig17-10-1
L Bukauskas KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
L Nickal Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Borralho KO/TKO · R2 May '24
L Allen Submission · R3 Nov '23
W Muniz KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23
Bellato13-3-1
W Fernandez KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Stirling Decision · R3 Sep '25
W Potieria KO/TKO · R2 Dec '23