MMA Prophecy
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UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley
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BEST PRICE We back Durden over Ochoa · Flyweight Our fair value$2.45 ESPN BET pays above fair $2.90
Where to back Durden best price · region · EV vs fair $2.45
US ESPN BET $2.90 +18%
UK Grosvenor $2.80 +14%
EU Pinnacle $2.84 +16%
AU TABtouch $2.80 +14%
Consensus122 picks · conf 97/99
Durden 64
58 Ochoa
SCMTTL pick Durden
How it endsmethod calls · Durden · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $17.59
Submission 4 $26.38
Decision 33 $3.20
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Durden 17-10-1 VS 8-2 Ochoa
5'7" height 5'7"
125 lb weight 125 lb
67" reach 67"
35 age 25
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.4 strikes landed / min 3.3
50% striking accuracy 31%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
50% striking defence 59%
4.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
50% takedown accuracy 0%
73% takedown defence 100%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market41% vs 34%
Consensus64 of 122 analysts
Sharpest angleDurden by Decision — 33 of 43 method calls
Recommendation Back Durden @ $2.90 · fair $2.45 +18% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Jose Ochoa “I'm going to go with José O in this”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Jose Ochoa “I'm gonna go with Jose Ochoa” $1.56
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Cody Durden VALUE “I'm all over Cody Durden at plus money.” $2.54
US Uselyis picks Jose Ochoa “I'm going to take Jose Ochoa Ochoa at a minus 194 money line.” $1.52
GI GipperPicks picks Cody Durden “I lean a slight lean Oya.”
XL xLimOnC picks Jose Ochoa “Creo que es un periodo con potencial y que se llevará la victoria”
MM MMAnomaly picks Cody Durden VALUE “I'm going custom made, baby.”
CM Coty MMA picks Cody Durden VALUE “give me Duran. I'll pick him. I bet him plus 160.”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Jose Ochoa VALUE “I'm going to pick uh Joseé AO by decision.”
⚔P ⚔️Soups MMA Preview⚔️ picks Jose Ochoa VALUE “Jose Ochoa. That dude's a baby.”
RP Real Sports Bet Picks picks Cody Durden “I'm going to go with Cody Durden by decision is an obvious loser degenerate gambler choice.”
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Cody Durden “I'm picking Jose Acho to win this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Durden17-10-1
W Filho Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Tumendemberel Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Nascimento Submission · R2 Nov '25
L Ochoa KO/TKO · R2 Jun '25
L Van Decision · R3 Dec '24
Ochoa8-2
W Carpenter Decision · R3 May '26
W Durden KO/TKO · R2 Jun '25
L Kavanagh Decision · R3 Nov '24