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UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley
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BEST PRICE We back Smotherman over Simón · Bantamweight Our fair value$2.15 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $5.00
Where to back Smotherman best price · region · EV vs fair $2.15
US BetOnline.ag $5.00 +133%
UK LiveScore Bet $4.70 +119%
EU Unibet (NL) $4.70 +119%
AU PlayUp $4.75 +121%
Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Simón 0
13 Smotherman
pick Simón
How it endsmethod calls · Smotherman · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $3.22
None 1 $6.44
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Simón 20-6 VS 12-6 Smotherman
— height 5'9"
— weight 136 lb
— reach 69"
33 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 6.2
43% striking accuracy 37%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
61% striking defence 60%
5.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
44% takedown accuracy 0%
75% takedown defence 50%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market47% vs 20%
Consensus13 of 13 analysts
Sharpest angleSmotherman by KO/TKO — 2 of 3 method calls
Recommendation Back Smotherman @ $5.00 · fair $2.15 +133% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Cameron Smotherman “We have got uh Ricky Simón taking on Cameron Smotherman”
SB SouthernTea Boxing-MMA & Sports Betting picks Cameron Smotherman “Ricky Simón is the play on this.”
DR Dr Roto picks Cameron Smotherman “Smotherman is one of those guys that actually is like super cheap on DK and Fandal.”
TP Tony's Picks picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE “I think it's Cameron Cameron Smothermanman or Pass.” $5.00
TH TheFinalRoundHQ picks Cameron Smotherman “I would lean more towards Cameron Smotherman.”
DR DRYWALL picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE “I think... Ricky... knocks him out.”
SN Ship It Nation picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE “I'm playing some Smotherman just because of Simone's ownership and he's plus 375” $4.75
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE “But for now, dude, I'm rolling with Ricky.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Cameron Smotherman “Against Ricky Simón here, it's probably his toughest fight to date.”
PM Pacific MMA picks Cameron Smotherman “I'm going Michael Oumar Syhiesa by first round sub.”
PN Picks Nation picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE “I like Cameron to get it done.”
SG Savant of the Fight Game picks Cameron Smotherman “And I'm going with Cameron Smotherman.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Simón20-6
L Barcelos Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Smotherman Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Basharat KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
L Oliveira Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Bautista Decision · R3 Jan '24
Smotherman12-6
L Asakura KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Simón Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Sidey Decision · R3 May '25
W Hadley Decision · R3 Oct '24