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UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder
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RW RR Whittaker vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight SM MB Magomedov vs BarriaultMain Card · Middleweight NK BG Krylov vs GuskovMain Card · Light Heavyweight İA BE Aslan vs ElekanaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight PY MM Yan vs McGheeMain Card · Bantamweight BM SN Mitchell vs NurmagomedovPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AR TR Ribas vs RicciPreliminary Card · Women'S Straweight MS CM Salikhov vs MirandaPreliminary Card · Welterweight MB MB Buday vs BuchechaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MY SN Yahya vs NguyenPreliminary Card · Featherweight DG DB Grant vs BlackshearPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AA JO Almabayev vs OchoaMain Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Ochoa over Almabayev · Flyweight Our fair value$1.87 TAB pays above fair $1.95
Where to back Ochoa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.87
US Caesars $1.95 +4%
UK Betway $1.95 +4%
EU Betsson $1.95 +4%
AU TAB $1.95 +4%
Consensus1 picks · conf 10/99
Almabayev 0
1 Ochoa
pick Almabayev
How it endsmethod calls · Ochoa · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $1.87
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3 VS 7-1 Ochoa
5'4" height 5'6"
125 lb weight 126 lb
65" reach 67"
32 age 25
Orthodox stance Southpaw
2.1 strikes landed / min 3.3
56% striking accuracy 31%
1.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
59% striking defence 59%
5.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
50% takedown accuracy 0%
50% takedown defence 100%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market54% vs 51%
Consensus1 of 1 analysts
Sharpest angleOchoa by KO/TKO — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation Back Ochoa @ $1.95 · fair $1.87 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks José Ochoa “I'm going to go with José Ochoa. I think he should get this one done”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W Johnson Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Perez Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Ochoa Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kape KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W Nicolau Decision · R3 Oct '24
Ochoa7-1
L Almabayev Decision · R3 Jul '25