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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
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CO MG Oliveira vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight DF MJ Figueiredo vs JacksonMain Card · Bantamweight VL JÁ Luque vs ÁlvarezMain Card · Welterweight JD MP Diniz vs PintoMain Card · Heavyweight RR KO Ramos vs OfliMain Card · Featherweight LA MA Almeida vs AswellPreliminary Card · Featherweight JF CC Filho vs CarpenterPreliminary Card · Flyweight VP TP Petrino vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BM IA Mesquita vs AlekseevaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LR SN Rocha vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight JP KK Polastri vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL SO Lacerda vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Luque over Álvarez · Welterweight Our fair value$4.68 TABtouch pays above fair $5.50
Where to back Luque best price · region · EV vs fair $4.68
US Hard Rock Bet $5.50 +17%
UK Grosvenor $5.50 +17%
EU Unibet (NL) $5.50 +17%
AU TABtouch $5.50 +17%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $5.56
Consensus72 picks · conf 76/99
Luque 20
52 Álvarez
9BPONL pick Luque
How it endsmethod calls · Luque · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $8.43
Submission 2 $21.08
Decision 1 $42.15
None 1 $42.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Luque 0-0 VS 23-3 Álvarez
5'11" height 6'3"
170 lb weight 171 lb
76" reach 77"
34 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
6.0 strikes landed / min 2.9
57% striking accuracy 62%
4.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
55% striking defence 54%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
69% takedown accuracy 37%
60% takedown defence 50%
1.4 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market21% vs 18%
Consensus20 of 72 analysts
Sharpest angleLuque by KO/TKO — 5 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Luque @ $5.50 · fair $4.68 +17% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
ES etoft21 sports picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “I'm going to take him on FanDuel here by submission in round one or two plus 210”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Joel Álvarez “I'm on Joel Álvarez all day”
LO Lowking.pl picks Vicente Luque VALUE “Vicente Luque, usug doori addat suge way”
PV Predicciones UFC - VainillaUFC picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “Joel Álvarez është një bishë. Kohët e fundit ka shkuar shumë mirë”
KU Kunath picks Vicente Luque “Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
KU Kunath picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
SO SOKRATES-MMA picks Joel Álvarez “I would definitely bet on Joel Álvarez. The man is young, he is finishing potential. That’s why I’m clearly betting on Joel Álvarez.”
LI Livershot picks Vicente Luque “I'm rooting for Luke to get back into the swing of things with his EVENT_DETAILS return. Come on, Luke. You can do it, bud.”
BG Bettor in Green picks Vicente Luque VALUE “I'm gonna go Luk here on the money line” $5.10
BG Bettor in Green picks Joel Álvarez “I got to go Joel Álvarez here at the minus 550.” $1.18
HN Hidden Source News picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “My pick will be Joel Álvarez to take the win.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Luque0-0
W Gastelum Submission · R1 Apr '26
L Álvarez Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Holland Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Gorimbo Submission · R1 Dec '24
L Buckley KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Álvarez23-3
L Amosov Submission · R2 May '26
W Luque Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Klose KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Brener KO/TKO · R3 Aug '24
W Diakiese Submission · R2 Jul '23