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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
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CO MG Oliveira vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight DF MJ Figueiredo vs JacksonMain Card · Bantamweight VL JÁ Luque vs ÁlvarezMain Card · Welterweight JD MP Diniz vs PintoMain Card · Heavyweight RR KO Ramos vs OfliMain Card · Featherweight LA MA Almeida vs AswellPreliminary Card · Featherweight JF CC Filho vs CarpenterPreliminary Card · Flyweight VP TP Petrino vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BM IA Mesquita vs AlekseevaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LR SN Rocha vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight JP KK Polastri vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL SO Lacerda vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Rocha over Nicoll · Flyweight Our fair value$2.00 Coolbet pays above fair $2.06
Where to back Rocha best price · region · EV vs fair $2.00
US BetOnline.ag $2.05 +3%
UK LiveScore Bet $2.02 +1%
EU Coolbet $2.06 +3%
AU PlayUp $2.05 +3%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.00
Consensus71 picks · conf 76/99
Rocha 37
34 Nicoll
TTLHIH pick Rocha
How it endsmethod calls · Rocha · crowd line
KO/TKO 11 $4.54
Submission 5 $9.99
Decision 9 $5.55
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rocha 18-2 VS 8-2 Nicoll
5'3" height 5'5"
126 lb weight 126 lb
64" reach 65"
25 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 2.5
55% striking accuracy 60%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
54% striking defence 51%
2.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
73% takedown accuracy 41%
90% takedown defence 80%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market50% vs 49%
Consensus37 of 71 analysts
Sharpest angleRocha by KO/TKO — 11 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Rocha @ $2.06 · fair $2.00 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Lucas Rocha VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Stewart Nicoll “I'm on Stewart Nicoll probably by submission.”
MM Moneyball MMA picks Lucas Rocha VALUE “I think Lucas Rocha will find a knockout in Rio.” $2.95
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “I'm gonna stay with Stewart Nicoll”
GI GipperPicks picks Stewart Nicoll “I lean Stewart Nicoll to get the win.”
VI VinceMMA picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “Stewart Nicoll by grappler”
KU Kunath picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “give me Stewart Nicoll to win this fight.”
KU Kunath picks Lucas Rocha “I think Stewart Nicoll is just going to dominate him on the map.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Lucas Rocha VALUE “I'm going to go ahead and pick Lucas Rocha to get the win.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Stewart Nicoll “No direct pick quote, but discussed as the opponent.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Lucas Rocha “I got Roach as well.”
MU MustardKetchupMayo1000 picks Stewart Nicoll “I'm taking Stewart Nicoll.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rocha18-2
W Nicoll Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Carpenter Submission · R2 Oct '24
Nicoll8-2
L Costa KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Rocha Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Aguilar Submission · R1 Aug '24