MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
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CO MG Oliveira vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight DF MJ Figueiredo vs JacksonMain Card · Bantamweight VL JÁ Luque vs ÁlvarezMain Card · Welterweight JD MP Diniz vs PintoMain Card · Heavyweight RR KO Ramos vs OfliMain Card · Featherweight LA MA Almeida vs AswellPreliminary Card · Featherweight JF CC Filho vs CarpenterPreliminary Card · Flyweight VP TP Petrino vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BM IA Mesquita vs AlekseevaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LR SN Rocha vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight JP KK Polastri vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL SO Lacerda vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Lacerda over Oliveira · Catchweight Our fair value$1.28 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.40
Where to back Lacerda best price · region · EV vs fair $1.28
US BetMGM $1.29 +1%
UK Betway $1.29 +1%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.40 +10%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.30 +2%
Consensus68 picks · conf 75/99
Lacerda 57
11 Oliveira
TTHTYI pick Lacerda
How it endsmethod calls · Lacerda · crowd line
KO/TKO 14 $3.56
Submission 12 $4.15
Decision 13 $3.83
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lacerda 13-3 VS 18-7 Oliveira
5'7" height 5'4"
136 lb weight 144 lb
72" reach 72"
33 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.2 strikes landed / min 3.5
48% striking accuracy 41%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
49% striking defence 48%
2.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
57% takedown accuracy 64%
58% takedown defence 72%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 1.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market78% vs 71%
Consensus57 of 68 analysts
Sharpest angleLacerda by KO/TKO — 14 of 39 method calls
Recommendation Back Lacerda @ $1.40 · fair $1.28 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Luan Lacerda VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Luan Lacerda “I'm gonna go ahead and just take Lucera for those.”
GI GipperPicks picks Luan Lacerda VALUE “I like Luan Lacerda a lot as a moneyline parlay.” $1.36
FI Fight_Numerology picks Luan Lacerda “I'm picking Simon to win this one.”
KU Kunath picks Saimon Oliveira “Saimon Oliveira showed up 8 lb overweight to his fight at 135 lbs. That's a cause for concern.”
KU Kunath picks Luan Lacerda VALUE “I think Luan Lacerda came in prepared and I think Simon Ola did not. So, as far as your cash games go, I think Luan Lacerda is a fine play.”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Saimon Oliveira “I'm going to go with Saimon Oliveira. That is, not having lost those 9 pounds is a disadvantage that you have, that is, that your rival suffered.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Luan Lacerda VALUE “I will be betting Luon Luan Lacerda to take the win.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Luan Lacerda “I'm going to take uh Luan Lacerda Merta.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Saimon Oliveira “Kyle's taking Simon Alivera.”
MU MustardKetchupMayo1000 picks Luan Lacerda “I'm taking Luan Lacerda decision”
IP Inside The Cage Podcast picks Luan Lacerda VALUE “I'm going to go with Luan Lacerda here solely because he has shown that he's actually has some upside in his fights when Saimon Oliveira has not.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lacerda13-3
L Sosa Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Oliveira Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Blackshear KO/TKO · R2 Jun '23
L Stamann Decision · R3 Jan '23
Oliveira18-7
L Lacerda Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Martínez KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Marcos KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
L Gravely Decision · R3 Jan '22