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UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen
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RR BA Ridder vs AllenMain Card · Middleweight KH MM Holland vs MalottMain Card · Welterweight MV AZ Vera vs ZahabiMain Card · Bantamweight MF JJ Fiorot vs JasudaviciusMain Card · Women'S Flyweight CG AQ Gibson vs QilengPreliminary Card · Bantamweight KN MF Nelson vs FrevolaMain Card · Lightweight CJ DG Jourdain vs GrantMain Card · Bantamweight BS PH Silva vs Hyun-sungPreliminary Card · Flyweight DB DS Barlow vs SantosPreliminary Card · Middleweight KP DD Prepolec vs DoberPreliminary Card · Lightweight SL RO Luciano vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AB YB Bekoev vs BelgarouiPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC TL Croden vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Barlow over Ribeiro dos Santos · Middleweight Our fair value$1.33 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.43
Where to back Barlow best price · region · EV vs fair $1.33
US Bovada $1.42 +7%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.40 +6%
EU Pinnacle $1.43 +8%
AU PlayUp $1.40 +6%
Consensus139 picks · conf 99/99
Barlow 118
21 Ribeiro dos Santos
BTFENM pick Barlow
How it endsmethod calls · Barlow · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $2.43
Decision 5 $2.92
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barlow 9-1 VS 20-11-2 Ribeiro dos Santos
6'2" height 5'9"
185 lb weight 175 lb
79" reach 63"
30 age —
Southpaw stance Orthodox
5.7 strikes landed / min 2.2
47% striking accuracy 36%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.9
70% striking defence 75%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.9
66% takedown accuracy 36%
61% takedown defence 59%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market75% vs 70%
Consensus118 of 139 analysts
Sharpest angleBarlow by KO/TKO — 6 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Back Barlow @ $1.43 · fair $1.33 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos VALUE “Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos to win.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Danny Barlow VALUE “Danny Barlow pick, even though he's on my private spot for Danny Barlow for me.”
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Danny Barlow “I'm going to pick Danny Barlow.”
MF MMA FISHERMAN picks Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos “Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos should win this. I think it's Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos's time, have to go Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos.”
RI RightTakeMMA picks Danny Barlow “I'm going to go Danny Barlow by sparking him out cold in the first round, maybe the second round.”
SM Skath MMA picks Danny Barlow “Danny Barlow by KO.”
CO CozyBoyzMMA picks Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos VALUE “My pick was on Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos”
TM Teo Talks MMA picks Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos “I honestly think Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos might win this”
TC The Finz Chats picks Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos “So Danny Barlow on the loses to the Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos”
MK MMA WIZ KID picks Danny Barlow “I'm gonna have to go with Danny Barlow. >> picking Danny Barlow? >> Yeah, we're picking Danny Barlow.”
PR Pub Sports Radio picks Danny Barlow “betting Danny Barlow straight money line in this fight.”
VI VinceMMA picks Danny Barlow “He's just better. Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos isn't good.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barlow9-1
L Santos Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Patterson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Veretennikov Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Quinlan KO/TKO · R3 Feb '24
Ribeiro dos Santos20-11-2
W Barlow Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Diaz Decision · R3 Mar '25