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UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen
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RR BA Ridder vs AllenMain Card · Middleweight KH MM Holland vs MalottMain Card · Welterweight MV AZ Vera vs ZahabiMain Card · Bantamweight MF JJ Fiorot vs JasudaviciusMain Card · Women'S Flyweight CG AQ Gibson vs QilengPreliminary Card · Bantamweight KN MF Nelson vs FrevolaMain Card · Lightweight CJ DG Jourdain vs GrantMain Card · Bantamweight BS PH Silva vs Hyun-sungPreliminary Card · Flyweight DB DS Barlow vs SantosPreliminary Card · Middleweight KP DD Prepolec vs DoberPreliminary Card · Lightweight SL RO Luciano vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AB YB Bekoev vs BelgarouiPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC TL Croden vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Lisboa over Croden · Women'S Bantamweight Our fair value$2.11 Caesars pays above fair $2.18
Where to back Lisboa best price · region · EV vs fair $2.11
US Caesars $2.18 +3%
UK Paddy Power $2.10 -1%
EU Pinnacle $2.11 -0%
AU Ladbrokes AU $2.10 -1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.17
Consensus126 picks · conf 99/99
Croden 62
64 Lisboa
ALLLRL pick Croden
How it endsmethod calls · Lisboa · crowd line
Decision 8 $2.11
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Croden 7-3 VS 7-3 Lisboa
5'9" height 5'7"
136 lb weight 135 lb
69" reach 67"
35 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min 3.1
62% striking accuracy 54%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
54% striking defence 68%
1.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
66% takedown accuracy 60%
76% takedown defence 87%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market47% vs 46%
Consensus64 of 126 analysts
Sharpest angleLisboa by Decision — 8 of 8 method calls
Recommendation Back Lisboa @ $2.18 · fair $2.11 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Melissa Croden VALUE “I'm going to take Yeah.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Melissa Croden
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Tainara Lisboa “So I go Tainara Lisboa decision.”
KU Kunath picks Melissa Croden “Melissa Croden going to get a decent amount of able to get Tainara Lisboa down to the easy money.”
MF MMA FISHERMAN picks Melissa Croden “to be Melissa Croden. Her only loss is quality more than Tainara Lisboa.”
CO CozyBoyzMMA picks Melissa Croden VALUE “My pick is Melissa Croden.” $2.44
TM Teo Talks MMA picks Melissa Croden “I should have put Melissa Croden in my confident picks.”
LM Livid Larry MMA picks Tainara Lisboa “I really do think Tinara Tainara Lisboa longot bet with Tainara Lisboa by sub.”
PR Pub Sports Radio picks Melissa Croden VALUE “I'Mike Malott taking Melissa Croden to win and give me the dog Melissa Croden”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Melissa Croden “who I think who can utilize her Tainara Lisboa and that will allow Melissa Croden to”
WP We Want Picks picks Melissa Croden “local Canadian Melissa Croden.”
CC Chronic Combat Conversations picks Tainara Lisboa “I think Tainara Lisboa”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Croden7-3
W Zheleznyakova Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Santos Decision · R3 Dec '25
W Lisboa KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
Lisboa7-3
L Croden KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
L Santos Submission · R2 May '25
W Oliveira Decision · R3 Oct '23
W Clark Submission · R3 May '23