MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
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BM LK Moreno vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight MV DM Vera vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight DZ KG Zellhuber vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight ÉC FB Cháirez vs BunesMain Card · Flyweight SL AP Luna vs PachecoMain Card · Bantamweight AP MC Pérez vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DA JR Andrade vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight ES FM Silva vs MarshallPreliminary Card · Featherweight DP WS Pinas vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight IR KB Rodríguez vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight RT EK Tarin vs KareckaitėPreliminary Card · Catchweight RG JM Gandra vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight CQ KM Quiñónez vs MoutinhoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Martínez v Vera Bantamweight Our fair value $1.37 best price $1.36 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Martínez best price · region · EV vs fair $1.37
US BetRivers $1.33 -3%
UK Betway $1.36 -0%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.36 -0%
AU PlayUp $1.36 -0%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.39
Consensus168 picks · conf 99/99
Vera 43
125 Martínez
MKOALM pick Vera
How it endsmethod calls · Martínez · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $15.04
Decision 20 $1.50
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Vera 23-11-1 VS 21-3-1 Martínez
5'8" height 5'9"
136 lb weight 221 lb
70" reach 67"
33 age —
Switch stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min 4.1
46% striking accuracy 42%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
52% striking defence 72%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
69% takedown accuracy 43%
66% takedown defence 85%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market73% vs 74%
Consensus125 of 168 analysts
Sharpest angleMartínez by Decision — 20 of 22 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TR TrueComboMMA picks David Martínez “David Martínez via decision.”
HI HilexMMA picks David Martínez “I am going to go with David Martínez to win this fight by decision”
MM MmaTape picks Marlon Vera VALUE “I'm taking my time. I have so much to say ... I'm going to tell you this. Wes Schultz is my dog of the week. So adding on him, might as well say Lonner's worth the sprinkle.”
VI VinceMMA picks Marlon Vera VALUE “I'm leaning towards Marlon Vera”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks David Martínez “I see David Martínez winning this fight easily.”
FK Fight Kings picks Marlon Vera VALUE “I think Marlon Vera is going to be saying Vivva Mexico at the very end of EVENT_DETAILS just like NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 always does when NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 wins.”
CN Correlation Nation picks David Martínez “I think more more than likely David probably wins a decision”
MM MMA Mobsters picks David Martínez VALUE “So, David Martínez is the pick” $3.60
MC McManusMMA picks David Martínez “David Martínez, Marlon Vera and just win by decision.”
BM Bozing MMA picks David Martínez “And uh he gets it done by decision in this one. I don't think he's going to finish Marlon Vera. I think he just gets it done by decision based on output, of course.”
TC The Finz Chats picks David Martínez VALUE “also be taking David Martínez in this spot. David Martínez is the Mexican improperly. Give me David Martínez to the main event”
TC The Finz Chats picks Marlon Vera VALUE “we got is Marlon Vera taking on David Martínez. >> also be taking David Martínez in this spot.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Vera23-11-1
L Martínez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Zahabi Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Figueiredo Decision · R3 Aug '24
L O'Malley Decision · R5 Mar '24
W Munhoz Decision · R3 Aug '23
Martínez21-3-1
W Vera Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Font Decision · R3 Sep '25
W Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25