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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
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BM LK Moreno vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight MV DM Vera vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight DZ KG Zellhuber vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight ÉC FB Cháirez vs BunesMain Card · Flyweight SL AP Luna vs PachecoMain Card · Bantamweight AP MC Pérez vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DA JR Andrade vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight ES FM Silva vs MarshallPreliminary Card · Featherweight DP WS Pinas vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight IR KB Rodríguez vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight RT EK Tarin vs KareckaitėPreliminary Card · Catchweight RG JM Gandra vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight CQ KM Quiñónez vs MoutinhoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Luna over Pacheco · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.15 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $1.21
Where to back Luna best price · region · EV vs fair $1.15
US FanDuel $1.14 -0%
UK Betway $1.15 +0%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.21 +6%
AU PlayUp $1.14 -0%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.16
Consensus147 picks · conf 99/99
Luna 136
11 Pacheco
TRKOCA pick Luna
How it endsmethod calls · Luna · crowd line
KO/TKO 13 $1.76
Submission 4 $5.73
Decision 3 $7.64
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Luna 8-0 VS 7-3 Pacheco
5'9" height 5'8"
136 lb weight 135 lb
74" reach 70"
21 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
— strikes landed / min 9.5
— striking accuracy 39%
— strikes absorbed / min 11.5
— striking defence 41%
— takedowns / 15 min 0.0
— takedown accuracy 0%
— takedown defence 28%
— submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market87% vs 83%
Consensus136 of 147 analysts
Sharpest angleLuna by KO/TKO — 13 of 20 method calls
Recommendation Back Luna @ $1.21 · fair $1.15 +6% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Santiago Luna “I'm going to go with Santiago Luna.”
CN Correlation Nation picks Santiago Luna “I do believe that Santiago Luna's ability to close the gap and uh get these body lock tosses and throws and what have you um is going to be the difference in this fight and his conditioning.”
MM MMA Mobsters picks Santiago Luna “Santiago Luna looks to be really better than Angel Pacheco. ... a fade on Angel Pacheco.”
DB DFS Bachelor picks Santiago Luna “I like Luna uh by knockout. So I have him in my lineup, Gandra and Luna.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Santiago Luna VALUE “This Santiago Luna has shown real power. That knockout of uh who was it? Juan Lee, my goodness.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Santiago Luna VALUE “I like Santiago Luna. This Santiago Luna has shown real power.”
J- J-Dog picks Santiago Luna VALUE “I'm going to go with Santiago Luna to win this one.”
MC McManusMMA picks Santiago Luna “I'm going with Santiago Luna confidently.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Santiago Luna “Uh going with Santiago Luna by KO”
CP Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Santiago Luna VALUE “I got Santiago Luna feeling. But I think Santiago Luna, I got Santiago Luna in that one, man.”
CP Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Angel Pacheco “I got Angel Pacheco in that one, man.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Santiago Luna “I think he's a big reach advantage... I think he's going to get a early finish here by TKO over Angel Pacheco's”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Luna8-0
L Mitchell Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Pacheco Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Le KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
Pacheco7-3
L Luna Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Loughran Decision · R3 Mar '24