Choose a fight to analyse
BM
LK
Moreno vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight
MV
DM
Vera vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight
DZ
KG
Zellhuber vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight
ÉC
FB
Cháirez vs BunesMain Card · Flyweight
SL
AP
Luna vs PachecoMain Card · Bantamweight
AP
MC
Pérez vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
DA
JR
Andrade vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight
ES
FM
Silva vs MarshallPreliminary Card · Featherweight
DP
WS
Pinas vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight
IR
KB
Rodríguez vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight
RT
EK
Tarin vs KareckaitėPreliminary Card · Catchweight
RG
JM
Gandra vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CQ
KM
Quiñónez vs MoutinhoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
LK
Moreno vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight
MV
DM
Vera vs MartínezMain Card · Bantamweight
DZ
KG
Zellhuber vs GreenMain Card · Lightweight
ÉC
FB
Cháirez vs BunesMain Card · Flyweight
SL
AP
Luna vs PachecoMain Card · Bantamweight
AP
MC
Pérez vs ChiassonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
DA
JR
Andrade vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight
ES
FM
Silva vs MarshallPreliminary Card · Featherweight
DP
WS
Pinas vs SchultzPreliminary Card · Middleweight
IR
KB
Rodríguez vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight
RT
EK
Tarin vs KareckaitėPreliminary Card · Catchweight
RG
JM
Gandra vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CQ
KM
Quiñónez vs MoutinhoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Moreno
over Kavanagh · Flyweight
Our fair value$1.47
pays above fair
$1.51
Best prices · Moreno
Bovada · US
$1.50
Paddy Power · UK
$1.50
Pinnacle · EU
$1.51
Neds · AU
$1.50
Where to back Moreno
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.47
US
Bovada
$1.50
+2%
Bovada
$1.50
+2%
UK
Paddy Power
$1.50
+2%
Paddy Power
$1.50
+2%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.51
+3%
Pinnacle
$1.51
+3%
AU
Neds
$1.50
+2%
Neds
$1.50
+2%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.52
How it endsmethod calls · Moreno · crowd line
KO/TKO
7
$3.77
Submission
3
$8.80
Decision
8
$3.30
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Moreno 23-9-2
VS
9-1 Kavanagh
5'7"
height
5'6"
125 lb
weight
126 lb
70"
reach
67"
32
age
27
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.0
strikes landed / min
3.1
43%
striking accuracy
50%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
60%
striking defence
54%
1.6
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
46%
takedown accuracy
40%
64%
takedown defence
82%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 66%
Consensus143 of 195 analysts
Sharpest angleMoreno by Decision — 8 of 18 method calls
Recommendation
Back Moreno @ $1.51 · fair $1.47
+3% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
HI
HilexMMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I do think Brandon Moreno does get the [ __ ] win here though.”
HilexMMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I do think Brandon Moreno does get the [ __ ] win here though.”
BM
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I don't really see how Lone'er Kavanagh wins this fight... I think he I think he'll win this fight uh decision just by outpacing out pointing or outpacing uh yeah, outpacing Lone'er Kavanagh.”
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I don't really see how Lone'er Kavanagh wins this fight... I think he I think he'll win this fight uh decision just by outpacing out pointing or outpacing uh yeah, outpacing Lone'er Kavanagh.”
CN
Correlation Nation picks Brandon Moreno
“I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno on this”
Correlation Nation picks Brandon Moreno
“I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno on this”
MM
MMA Mobsters picks Brandon Moreno
“I've got Brandon Moreno by submission Lone'er Kavanagh.”
MMA Mobsters picks Brandon Moreno
“I've got Brandon Moreno by submission Lone'er Kavanagh.”
J-
J-Dog picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I would go with Lone'er Kavanagh by like maybe a third round finish.”
J-Dog picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I would go with Lone'er Kavanagh by like maybe a third round finish.”
J-
J-Dog picks Brandon Moreno VALUE
“I'm going with Brandon Moreno by decision.”
J-Dog picks Brandon Moreno VALUE
“I'm going with Brandon Moreno by decision.”
MC
McManusMMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I think he's going to finish Lone'er Kavanagh probably TKO um is what it is.”
McManusMMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I think he's going to finish Lone'er Kavanagh probably TKO um is what it is.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Brandon Moreno
“Um, I'm going with Brandon Moreno.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Brandon Moreno
“Um, I'm going with Brandon Moreno.”
TO
The MMA Outlaw picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I think Lone'er Kavanagh is the faster, more explosive fighter who has been in better form recently... I got to give you guys a play... taking this fight on short notice... He is going to pull off the upset... give me NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 Kavanagh at plus 175.”
$2.75
The MMA Outlaw picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I think Lone'er Kavanagh is the faster, more explosive fighter who has been in better form recently... I got to give you guys a play... taking this fight on short notice... He is going to pull off the upset... give me NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 Kavanagh at plus 175.”
$2.75
CP
Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“Lone'er Kavanagh Van and knocked out Lone'er Kavanagh, Ailín Pérez in 45 seconds. So, um, yeah, to be honest with you, Lone'er Kavanagh, they Brandon Moreno on short notice. Um, you with him, still Brandon Moreno. Um, Brandon Moreno just got knocked out.”
Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“Lone'er Kavanagh Van and knocked out Lone'er Kavanagh, Ailín Pérez in 45 seconds. So, um, yeah, to be honest with you, Lone'er Kavanagh, they Brandon Moreno on short notice. Um, you with him, still Brandon Moreno. Um, Brandon Moreno just got knocked out.”
CP
Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Brandon Moreno VALUE
“Brandon Moreno just got knocked out. Um, he know, Ailín Pérez just came off a big >> Brandon Moreno's uh like the only people just I don't man I if Lone'er Kavanagh I think Lone'er Kavanagh I'm not even going to say [__] Lone'er Kavanagh, pull the [__] off. Johnson. Brandon Moreno in his prime was think he's going to let Lone'er Kavanagh come Lone'er Kavanagh in the UFC. Um he's a huge check this. Brandon Moreno apparently hear it. Yeah.”
Clinch Conversations Podcast picks Brandon Moreno VALUE
“Brandon Moreno just got knocked out. Um, he know, Ailín Pérez just came off a big >> Brandon Moreno's uh like the only people just I don't man I if Lone'er Kavanagh I think Lone'er Kavanagh I'm not even going to say [__] Lone'er Kavanagh, pull the [__] off. Johnson. Brandon Moreno in his prime was think he's going to let Lone'er Kavanagh come Lone'er Kavanagh in the UFC. Um he's a huge check this. Brandon Moreno apparently hear it. Yeah.”
BM
Bozing MMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I think Bernard Marino is going to win this fight.”
Bozing MMA picks Brandon Moreno
“I think Bernard Marino is going to win this fight.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Moreno23-9-2
L
Kavanagh
Feb '26
L
Taira
Dec '25
W
Erceg
Mar '25
W
Albazi
Nov '24
L
Royval
Feb '24
Kavanagh9-1
W
Moreno
Feb '26
L
Johnson
Aug '25
W
Santos
Mar '25
W
Ochoa
Nov '24