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UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
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MH CO Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight CB RR Borralho vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight RF RJ Font vs Jr.Main Card · Bantamweight DD MJ Dober vs JohnsonMain Card · Lightweight GR BF Rodrigues vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight CG XL Garbrandt vs LongPreliminary Card · Bantamweight RT AM Turcios vs MontesPreliminary Card · Featherweight CD NT Durden vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM JA Mudaerji vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LF RB Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight DJ CB Johnson vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight RT DN Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Rodrigues over Ferreira · Middleweight Our fair value$1.61 BetAnything pays above fair $1.65
Where to back Rodrigues best price · region · EV vs fair $1.61
US BetAnything $1.65 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.62 +1%
EU Pinnacle $1.62 +1%
AU Neds $1.62 +1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.61
Consensus286 picks · conf 99/99
Rodrigues 181
105 Ferreira
KCKMAF pick Rodrigues
How it endsmethod calls · Rodrigues · crowd line
KO/TKO 13 $2.60
Submission 2 $16.91
Decision 6 $5.64
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rodrigues 18-6 VS 15-3 Ferreira
6'3" height 5'10"
186 lb weight 184 lb
75" reach 72"
34 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.5 strikes landed / min 3.8
56% striking accuracy 50%
4.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.1
51% striking defence 52%
2.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
41% takedown accuracy 16%
100% takedown defence 53%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market62% vs 61%
Consensus181 of 286 analysts
Sharpest angleRodrigues by KO/TKO — 13 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Rodrigues @ $1.65 · fair $1.61 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Gregory Rodrigues “I got the Gregory Rodrigues, man. Hit hard.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Brunno Ferreira “we're going to go with uh Brunno Ferreira on that one.”
TE TeejMMA picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I got Gregory Rodrigues by TKO in the second round”
DY DylanMMA picks Brunno Ferreira “I'm gonna go Brunno Ferreira by KO.”
VI Vicious421 picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I'm going to go with Gregory probably by knockout or it would be like a a tough little scrap and then uh he'll win on decision. But that's going to be my prediction for that one.”
HI HilexMMA picks Gregory Rodrigues “I am going to go with Gregory Rodrigues”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Brunno Ferreira “I think Brunno Ferreira is going to beat him again.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I think he wins by decision though if I were to favor any.”
AN AntUFC picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I'm going to take Gregory Gregory Rodrigues... I'm going with Roger by TKO in round three”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Brunno Ferreira VALUE “I'm gonna take a shot here on Bruno Fa.”
RS Run the Seam Show picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I'm going to go with uh Submission.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Gregory Rodrigues VALUE “I like Gregory Rodrigues. Okay, let's go with Gregory Rodrigues.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rodrigues18-6
W Ferreira KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Kopylov Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Hermansson KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
L Cannonier KO/TKO · R4 Feb '25
W Duncan Decision · R3 Jul '24
Ferreira15-3
L Aliskerov Decision · R3 Jun '26
L Rodrigues KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Vettori Decision · R3 Dec '25
W McVey Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Petrosyan Submission · R2 Mar '25