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Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
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Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
CO
Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
CB
RR
Borralho vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight
RF
RJ
Font vs Jr.Main Card · Bantamweight
DD
MJ
Dober vs JohnsonMain Card · Lightweight
GR
BF
Rodrigues vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight
CG
XL
Garbrandt vs LongPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
RT
AM
Turcios vs MontesPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
NT
Durden vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight
SM
JA
Mudaerji vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
LF
RB
Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
DJ
CB
Johnson vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight
RT
DN
Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Fernandez
over Bellato · Light Heavyweight
Our fair value$1.40
pays above fair
$1.49
Best prices · Fernandez
Bovada · US
$1.48
Unibet (UK) · UK
$1.44
Pinnacle · EU
$1.49
PlayUp · AU
$1.47
Where to back Fernandez
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.40
US
Bovada
$1.48
+6%
Bovada
$1.48
+6%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$1.44
+3%
Unibet (UK)
$1.44
+3%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.49
+6%
Pinnacle
$1.49
+6%
AU
PlayUp
$1.47
+5%
PlayUp
$1.47
+5%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.52
How it endsmethod calls · Fernandez · crowd line
KO/TKO
20
$1.89
Submission
2
$18.94
Decision
4
$9.47
None
1
$37.88
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Fernandez 6-0
VS
13-3-1 Bellato
6'1"
height
6'3"
206 lb
weight
204 lb
76"
reach
75"
31
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
—
strikes landed / min
4.4
—
striking accuracy
36%
—
strikes absorbed / min
2.4
—
striking defence
50%
—
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
—
takedown accuracy
30%
—
takedown defence
80%
—
submissions / 15 min
1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 67%
Consensus170 of 209 analysts
Sharpest angleFernandez by KO/TKO — 20 of 27 method calls
Recommendation
Back Fernandez @ $1.49 · fair $1.40
+6% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WA
WARTIMEMMA picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going to go Luke Fernandez. I'll go first round knockout as well.”
WARTIMEMMA picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going to go Luke Fernandez. I'll go first round knockout as well.”
DM
DMan&MariPulls picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going to go with the uh with Luke Fernandez.”
DMan&MariPulls picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going to go with the uh with Luke Fernandez.”
DM
DMan&MariPulls picks Rodolfo Bellato
“I'm rolling with Rodolfo Bellato here, man. I got Rodolfo Bellato.”
DMan&MariPulls picks Rodolfo Bellato
“I'm rolling with Rodolfo Bellato here, man. I got Rodolfo Bellato.”
WB
WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm taking Fernandez by KO round two.”
WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm taking Fernandez by KO round two.”
DY
DylanMMA picks Luke Fernandez
“I'll go Luke Fernandez by KO.”
DylanMMA picks Luke Fernandez
“I'll go Luke Fernandez by KO.”
MM
MMAHOLICS picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Luke Fernandez to win this one. I'm not too high on Ralpho. He's not, you know, trending in the right direction right now. Um, they're both around the same age in this one. So, I'm gonna take Fernandez to get a knockout in this one.”
MMAHOLICS picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Luke Fernandez to win this one. I'm not too high on Ralpho. He's not, you know, trending in the right direction right now. Um, they're both around the same age in this one. So, I'm gonna take Fernandez to get a knockout in this one.”
GM
GLO MMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I am going to go ahead and pick Luke Fernandez to get this done via decision.”
GLO MMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I am going to go ahead and pick Luke Fernandez to get this done via decision.”
CO
CouchWarrior1 picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going Luke Fernandez on this bad boy.”
CouchWarrior1 picks Luke Fernandez
“I'm going Luke Fernandez on this bad boy.”
AN
AntUFC picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm going with Luke Fernandez Luke Fernandez”
AntUFC picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm going with Luke Fernandez Luke Fernandez”
MT
Mark Berry TMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I think he wins the fight by knockout”
Mark Berry TMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I think he wins the fight by knockout”
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm going with Luke Fernandez.”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“I'm going with Luke Fernandez.”
LM
Lightning MMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“We got to go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Luke Fernandez by first round knockout”
Lightning MMA picks Luke Fernandez VALUE
“We got to go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Luke Fernandez by first round knockout”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Fernandez6-0
L
Bellato
Mar '26
Bellato13-3-1
W
Fernandez
Mar '26
L
Stirling
Sep '25
W
Potieria
Dec '23