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UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
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MH CO Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight CB RR Borralho vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight RF RJ Font vs Jr.Main Card · Bantamweight DD MJ Dober vs JohnsonMain Card · Lightweight GR BF Rodrigues vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight CG XL Garbrandt vs LongPreliminary Card · Bantamweight RT AM Turcios vs MontesPreliminary Card · Featherweight CD NT Durden vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight SM JA Mudaerji vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LF RB Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight DJ CB Johnson vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight RT DN Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Tobias over Nurgozhay · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$1.42 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $1.62
Where to back Tobias best price · region · EV vs fair $1.42
US BetOnline.ag $1.62 +14%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.58 +11%
EU Pinnacle $1.56 +10%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.55 +9%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.64
Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Tobias 130
20 Nurgozhay
CMMTMU pick Tobias
How it endsmethod calls · Tobias · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $11.83
Submission 21 $1.69
Decision 1 $35.48
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tobias 0-0 VS 10-2 Nurgozhay
6'1" height 6'2"
203 lb weight 205 lb
74" reach 74"
23 age 29
Orthodox stance Southpaw
— strikes landed / min 2.5
— striking accuracy 63%
— strikes absorbed / min 3.1
— striking defence 52%
— takedowns / 15 min 1.9
— takedown accuracy 68%
— takedown defence 78%
— submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 62%
Consensus130 of 150 analysts
Sharpest angleTobias by Submission — 21 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Tobias @ $1.62 · fair $1.42 +14% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Rafael Tobias “I think we got to rock with Rafael Tobias.”
WB WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm taking uh Raphael by sub in round one.”
DY DylanMMA picks Diyar Nurgozhay “I'll go with him by sub, I guess.”
DY DylanMMA picks Rafael Tobias “I'll go Rafael Tobias.”
MT Mic Talks picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “Rafael Tobias to get it done by submission”
AN AntUFC picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm going to go off TKO by Rafael Tobias”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I think he finds the submission and locks up something.”
LM Lightning MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “Rafael Tobias by first submission”
TD The DubCast picks Rafael Tobias “We're going with Rafael Tobias.”
JE JetChaosMMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “So give me Rafael Tobias again. This I you guys don't really need an explanation on this. He's got half an inch of reach on him. He's younger. He's got total momentum here.”
VM Voice of MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm taking Rafael Tobias minus 180 to win this fight” $1.56
NI Nick23mma picks Rafael Tobias VALUE “I'm going to go with Rafael Tobias on this one.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tobias0-0
L Nurgozhay Decision · R3 Mar '26
Nurgozhay10-2
W Tobias Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Satybaldiev Submission · R1 Aug '25
L Ribeiro Submission · R2 Mar '25