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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
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AA MC Allen vs CostaMain Card · Featherweight CD DS Doo-ho vs SantosMain Card · Featherweight MW JD Wellmaker vs DíazMain Card · Bantamweight TC BS Cuamba vs SopajMain Card · Bantamweight TT IE Tokkos vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight KV JC Vieira vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight CB AP Brundage vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight AA PV Ardelean vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight DB LG Barez vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight SB NC Bannon vs CaliariPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight KW NV Williams vs VeretennikovMain Card · Welterweight MB CE Bukauskas vs EdwardsMain Card · Catchweight TG AM Gantt vs MinevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Allen over Costa · Featherweight Our fair value$1.67 Unibet (UK) pays above fair $1.85
Where to back Allen best price · region · EV vs fair $1.67
US BetOnline.ag $1.85 +11%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.85 +11%
EU Betsson $1.84 +10%
AU TABtouch $1.83 +10%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.75
Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Allen 100
50 Costa
MBWRAW pick Allen
How it endsmethod calls · Allen · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $7.78
Decision 22 $2.12
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Allen 20-4 VS 26-7 Costa
5'8" height 5'10"
145 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 71"
32 age 29
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.5
41% striking accuracy 46%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
61% striking defence 58%
0.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
47% takedown accuracy 35%
75% takedown defence 52%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market60% vs 54%
Consensus100 of 150 analysts
Sharpest angleAllen by Decision — 22 of 28 method calls
Recommendation Back Allen @ $1.85 · fair $1.67 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I gotta go with Melquizael Costa on this one”
CS CBS Sports picks Arnold Allen “I think it is and certainly from the standpoint of protecting both his reputation and his placement as an elite fighter”
CS CBS Sports picks Melquizael Costa “Milki Melquizael Costa has turned his fortunes in a big way”
MJ MMA Junkie picks Arnold Allen “I do give Arnold Allen the” $1.56
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Arnold Allen “Arnold decision. I'm going Arnold decision.”
BM Bum MMA picks Arnold Allen “give me Arnold Allen via decision”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Arnold Allen “I will pick Arnold Arnold Allen.” $1.80
UB UFC Brasil picks Arnold Allen “I'm taking Arnold Allen”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Arnold Allen “I'm going Arnold Allen by decision”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Arnold Allen “I'm going Arnold Allen by knockout.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I'm going with Melquizael Costa moneyline, one unit at plus 112.” $2.12
PH Philyflishow999 picks Melquizael Costa “I feel like NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 just gets a big big W.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Allen20-4
W Costa Decision · R5 May '26
L Silva Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Chikadze Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Evloev Decision · R3 Jan '24
L Holloway Decision · R5 Apr '23
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25