MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Choose a fight to analyse
AA MC Allen vs CostaMain Card · Featherweight CD DS Doo-ho vs SantosMain Card · Featherweight MW JD Wellmaker vs DíazMain Card · Bantamweight TC BS Cuamba vs SopajMain Card · Bantamweight TT IE Tokkos vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight KV JC Vieira vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight CB AP Brundage vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight AA PV Ardelean vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight DB LG Barez vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight SB NC Bannon vs CaliariPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight KW NV Williams vs VeretennikovMain Card · Welterweight MB CE Bukauskas vs EdwardsMain Card · Catchweight TG AM Gantt vs MinevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Tokkos over Erslan · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$2.16 BetMGM pays above fair $2.50
Where to back Tokkos best price · region · EV vs fair $2.16
US BetMGM $2.50 +16%
UK Betway $2.40 +11%
EU Coolbet $2.48 +15%
AU SportsBet $2.41 +11%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.56
Consensus103 picks · conf 86/99
Tokkos 61
42 Erslan
MMASTT pick Tokkos
How it endsmethod calls · Tokkos · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $32.47
Submission 7 $4.64
Decision 7 $4.64
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tokkos 11-5 VS 14-6 Erslan
6'4" height 6'2"
206 lb weight 206 lb
76" reach 72"
36 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 3.8
43% striking accuracy 53%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
45% striking defence 71%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
100% takedown accuracy 33%
33% takedown defence 80%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 40%
Consensus61 of 103 analysts
Sharpest angleTokkos by Submission — 7 of 15 method calls
Recommendation Back Tokkos @ $2.50 · fair $2.16 +16% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm going to put Tuco Tokkos on my parlays”
BM Bum MMA picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm gonna say the same thing. Tuco Tokkos is going to come out here.” $2.50
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'll take Tuco Tokkos.” $2.45
UB UFC Brasil picks Ivan Erslan “Ivan Erslan versus”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Ivan Erslan “I'm going Ivan Erslan by first round KO”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Ivan Erslan “Tuco Tokkos versus Yvon Ivan Erslan. I'm going to go with Ivan Erslan.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm going with Tuco Tokkos to win this by submission. ... give me Tuco Tokkos by sub plus 490” $5.90
PH Philyflishow999 picks Tuco Tokkos “I have a feeling Tuco Tokkos is going to use grappling to his advantage to win that fight. And I think Tuco Tokkos gets that win.”
AU Austin picks Tuco Tokkos “I'm going with Tuco Tokkos anyway no matter what people I'm going with Tuco Tokkos in this fight.”
TS The Sports Scientist picks Tuco Tokkos “I'll take too close to win by decision”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Ivan Erslan “give me Ivan Erslan by round two knockout.”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Tuco Tokkos “on to Tuco Tokkos at plus 140 versus Ivan Erslan >> ... we got Tuco Tokkos” $2.40
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tokkos11-5
L Erslan Decision · R3 May '26
W Tafa Submission · R2 Jul '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 Dec '24
L Sy Submission · R1 May '24
Erslan14-6
W Tokkos Decision · R3 May '26
L Crute Submission · R1 Sep '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 May '25
L Cuțelaba Decision · R3 Sep '24