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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
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BEST PRICE We back Barez over Gurule · Flyweight Our fair value$2.17 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $2.55
Where to back Barez best price · region · EV vs fair $2.17
US BetOnline.ag $2.55 +17%
UK 888sport $2.45 +13%
EU Pinnacle $2.49 +14%
AU PointsBet (AU) $2.40 +10%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.33
Consensus97 picks · conf 84/99
Barez 51
46 Gurule
MMBWFJ pick Barez
How it endsmethod calls · Barez · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $12.32
Decision 14 $2.64
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barez 17-7 VS 11-3 Gurule
5'6" height 5'5"
126 lb weight 125 lb
66" reach 64"
37 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.1 strikes landed / min 4.6
52% striking accuracy 62%
5.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
57% striking defence 61%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
31% takedown accuracy 74%
92% takedown defence 85%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 39%
Consensus51 of 97 analysts
Sharpest angleBarez by Decision — 14 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Barez @ $2.55 · fair $2.17 +17% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Daniel Barez “I got to go Daniel Daniel Barez by decision”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Daniel Barez VALUE “I'm also going to go against the public here... I'll take a little stab there short.”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Luis Gurule “Daniel Barez versus Lewis Luis Gurule. I like Luis Gurule.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Daniel Barez VALUE “I got Daniel Barez one unit on his plus 132 money line. ... I got Daniel Barez to win this by KO.” $2.32
PH Philyflishow999 picks Daniel Barez “I'm picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 here, but I do not feel very confident on it.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Luis Gurule “the prediction is Luis Gurule to win on the judges' scorecards”
AU Austin picks Luis Gurule “I'm going to go with Luis Gurule to get the win over Daniel Barez.”
TS The Sports Scientist picks Luis Gurule “back against the wall, Luis Gurule is going to win by decision here”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Luis Gurule “Give me Luis Gurule.”
JM Jay Jay MMA picks Luis Gurule “yeah, Luis Gurule by decision.”
AF Alex Talks Fights picks Daniel Barez VALUE “I'm going Daniel Barez here”
MC McManusMMA picks Luis Gurule “I with Luis Gurule on this one. Um him. I think I'm going to go with Luis Gurule Luis Gurule to win this one. I think I'm Luis Gurule, you should have this one in the”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barez17-7
L Gurule Decision · R3 May '26
L Lima Submission · R3 Mar '25
Gurule11-3
L Tsuruya Submission · R1 May '26
W Barez Decision · R3 May '26
L Coria Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Aguilar Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Osbourne KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25